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thijsniks's profile
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 20 Mar 2020

      Nederland test minder voor het coronavirus, maar hoeveel minder? Twee schattingsmethodes: 💀 Case Fatality Rate 😷 Infectie zorgpersoneel Nederland rapporteert 2.994 bevestigde besmettingen, maar dat zou 8.000 tot 11.000 zijn naar Italiaanse standaard Berekeningen 🧵👇

      1 reply 11 retweets 26 likes
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    2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 20 Mar 2020

      Nederland heeft een Case Fatality Rate van 106 doden / 2.994 besmettingen = 3,5% en dat is Wuhan-hoog Nederland zit nu nog (net) onder de maximale zorgcapaciteit, dus zou de CFR gelijk moeten zijn aan wat we bijvoorbeeld in Zuid-Korea zien: 94 doden / 8.652 besmettingen = 1% CFR

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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    3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 20 Mar 2020

      106 Nederlandse doden / 1% Case Fatality Rate = zou je 10.600 bevestigde besmettingen verwachten We weten ook dat maar 14% van de besmettingen normaal gevonden wordt (zie https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full …), dus totale aantal besmettingen is nu 10.600 / 14% = ongeveer 75.700

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 20 Mar 2020

      Er is een tweede manier om het testtekort te schatten, als je ervan uitgaat dat zorgpersoneel even goed beschermd is en wel evenveel getest wordt in Nederland en Italië.

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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    5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 20 Mar 2020

      In Italie is 8,3% van de besmettingen bij zorgpersoneel https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/18/news/coronavirus_in_vigore_il_decreto_cura-italia_aumentano_i_contagi-251584599/ … In Nederland is dat nu 725 / 2.994 = 24,2% https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus … 24,2% / 8,3% = factor 2,92 2,92 * 2.994 = 8.740 besmettingen 8.740 / 14% = 62.400 onbevestigde besmettingen

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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    6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 20 Mar 2020

      Hoe meer we testen, hoe beter en sneller we infecties kunnen opsporen en hoe losser de quarantaine maatregelen kunnen zijn. Daar is Nederland nog niet, maar ik ben wel benieuwd hoe anders de publieke opinie zou zijn als onze cijfers accurater waren.

      3 replies 7 retweets 11 likes
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    7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 21 Mar 2020

      Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks

      We hebben 4 datapunten. 200 mensen getest op 2 maart https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/02/eight-test-positive-coronavirus-bringing-dutch-total-18 … 6.000 tests op 7 maart https://twitter.com/thijsniks/status/1236556650745450497 … 12.000 tests tussen 11 en 18 maart https://youtube.com/watch?v=DprK2f_Yb8w#t=23m08s … (?) 1.000 tests per dag op 17 maart https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/who-kritisch-nederland-vaar-niet-blind-op-groepsimmuniteit~a99537fa/ … Geen capaciteitsgroei dus

      Thijs Niks added,

      Thijs Niks @thijsniks
      Dit RIVM filmpje geeft aan dat er 6000+ tests zijn uitgevoerd. Ben benieuwd waarom ze dat niet per dag op de website publiceren. via @niek401 https://twitter.com/rivm/status/1236355606904217607 … pic.twitter.com/v1g9mPS5Ib
      Show this thread
      3 replies 5 retweets 8 likes
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    8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 21 Mar 2020

      Als we daadwerkelijk niet meer testen omdat we geen PLASTIC PLAATJES hebben, zoals deze medisch directeur vorige week zei, dan is er iets goed mis in dit land https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/12/tekort-aan-coronatests-gebrek-aan-plastic-plaatjes-a3993659 …pic.twitter.com/yTNbGswv1b

      7 replies 7 retweets 15 likes
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    9. Joyce Brekelmans‏ @JoyceBrekelmans 21 Mar 2020
      Replying to @thijsniks

      Maar, hoezo kan dat niet worden opgelost met een paar 3D-printers?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 21 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JoyceBrekelmans

      Of plastic injection molding. We hebben fantastisch gespecialiseerde bedrijven daarvoor. In Friesland zelfs, waar dit lab zit

      1:16 PM - 21 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Joyce Brekelmans
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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