So all that is left then is suppression: "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time.”
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"The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently."
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This is a crucial point. If the strategy was mitigation the idea would be to target interventions in a time window around the peak of the epidemic. That seems to have been the rationale in the UK for waiting with some measures.
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But: "For suppression, early action is important, and interventions need to be in place well before healthcare capacity is overwhelmed.” So we are basically back to plan A: throw the kitchen sink at this
#covid19 epidemic. And do it now.6 replies 127 retweets 359 likesShow this thread -
And suppression not only needs to start early, it needs to keep going for a long time: "To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more.”
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As the authors emphasise: It "is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time.” That’s at the end of the paper.
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So that’s where we are at, according to this ONE modelling study: Massive interventions need to be done right now and may have to be maintained for more than a year (maybe with short periods of them being lifted in between, a kind of collective drug holiday).
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Replying to @kakape
Will suppression work here without the infrastructure they have say in Korea and Taiwan?
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Need full lockdown to buy time to build more of that infrastructure
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Replying to @thijsniks @kakape
Isn’t testing at scale like everybody is saying essential both for visibility and at some point to move back into containment/rapid response? If you don’t roll out testing at scale, your testing won’t improve fast enough to deal with the situation.
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Yes
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