If you had to guess, how many people would you say have been infected with coronavirus in the U.S. so far? (The official number of confirmed cases is 554.)
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Replying to @Noahpinion
US deaths is at ~22 now, with ~16 of those in Kirkland. If you count those as one, you effectively have 7 deaths. Given incubation time and infection rate, 500 infections per death seems a lower bound and 1000 the upper. 3500 to 7000 cases right now.
4 replies 1 retweet 10 likes -
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Oh man, trick question. I'm pretty sure other countries are testing suspected flu deaths but the US probably doesn't. The Netherlands, for example, tested *all* medical staff in its outbreak area. Haven’t seen that in the US either.
1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes -
Replying to @thijsniks
So it's not too hard to imagine that with tens of thousands of flu deaths a year, mostly among the elderly, we might have misclassified a few dozen over the course of a month? In which case the true infection rate could be over 20,000 by that same math...
3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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