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Prikvačeni tweet
After wrapping up my Harvard course and one of my main consulting gigs in January, I'm looking to take on some new projects, and updated my site to show more of what I can do: https://www.andrewtherriault.com/ . Please share, and reach out if you have ideas for collaborations. Thanks!
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The Xennial president we've been waiting for.https://twitter.com/kombiz/status/1225653036481044480 …
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Updated yet again, now that 96% of results are in. Same links as below. No big changes from earlier today, but a few. Probably won't post another update since the last 4% won't really change any conclusions, but may run it again tomorrow if there's demand - let me know?https://twitter.com/therriaultphd/status/1225166664771215362 …
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Ugh... of course they did: https://twitter.com/iowademocrats/status/1225170253778444291 … . I'll update if anything substantial changes, but hopefully it's just as minor as they say (18/17?!?)
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Oh FFS. I literally just published an updated analysis.https://twitter.com/iowademocrats/status/1225170253778444291 …
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So that's it for this edition of the madness that ensues when 150,000 unrepresentative people in a rural red state use an unnecessarily complex and undemocratic event to kick off the Democratic nominating process. Will update later if I find out more. Thanks for reading! (17/17)
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down the road if he's not the eventual nominee. Hopefully in that scenario it wouldn't be as bad as 2016, but still, it's something to be aware of as we watch these intra-party fights drag out for another month or two. And god help us if it's a contested convention. (16/x)
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the caucus system is problematic - if the goal of reallocation is to produce more consensus, it fails when there's an incentive to game the popular vote in this way. But if it's actually a sign of an unwillingness to compromise, that could cause a lot of headaches... (15/x)
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Given that these are caucus results, maybe this is some kind of strategic choice (e.g., not wanting to add to the popular vote totals of another candidate, which would hurt Sanders' overall proportion of the vote share). But even if so, that's yet another reason why... (14/x)
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at less than 10%. But the one exception to this? Sanders supporters. Based on my analysis, at least 23% of Sanders supporters chose *nobody* rather than switch to one of the other major candidates. So could we be seeing a repeat of 2016's "Bernie or Bust" movement? (13/x)
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If you add up those numbers, you get greater than 90% for 4 out of the 5 candidates' supporters switching, which sets the minimum estimate of drop-off (voters switching to Uncommitted or just going home rather than going to another major candidate) for those supporters... (12/x)
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total across other candidates to see where any candidate's supporters move to in general. But if you add up those numbers, you do get an upper bound for the percentage who switch over to *any* other of the major candidates, and that's where it gets really interesting. (11/x)
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Finally, on to the most interesting new thing that I alluded to earlier. The model-based analysis is a bit tricky to interpret in general terms, since it's based on specific scenarios (if x is not viable but y is, what % of x's voters does y get?). So you can't just... (10/x)
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to make their pitches to unallocateds *before* the first official count, which makes sense because you want to make sure you're viable first and unallocateds are the most logical persuasion targets. If so, then it makes sense that they'd pick up few of them later on. (9/x)
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Another pattern that I didn't think much about yesterday: why (according to the best estimates I can come up with) did Warren get so few of the initially unallocated, and Buttigieg appeared to get none? My guess is that those campaigns' ground games were good enough... (8/x)
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end up in the long run. (That's under the assumption that Yang doesn't somehow turn it around, but I'm not saying that's impossible! Don't really feel like getting ratio'd here today, thanks.) (7/x)
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Next: Looking at where Yang voters ended up, it's interesting that they seemed split between Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, but didn't much like Biden or Warren. Those groups don't align with either the ideology or gender narratives, so it's unclear where those votes... (6/x)
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Right now, 538 has Klobuchar at about 9% in NH. If he managed to pull away a third of those voters over the next week, that could push him away from the Biden/Warren grouping and into direct competition with Sanders. So her future could directly affect his, and quickly. (5/x)
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