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Why is Texas Testing decreasing & Positivity rate increasing? ** Something called "Pending Assignments" ** 1/n As TX has been testing, a category called "Pending Assignments" has been building over time to over 1M tests. See Row 258 of this spreadsheet https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID-19CumulativeTestsOverTimebyCounty.xlsx …
' 2/n TX started reducing the backlog on 7/31. The same time the Reported Daily Tests started declining on the DSHS Website. How does it work? Every day a batch of these "pendings" are analyzed, some assigned to counties, others may be dups/errors 2/npic.twitter.com/DxlaefZY9M
Based on the math, it appears the dups/errors, the tests not assigned to a county, are thrown out (likely for good reason). However, this number of dups/errors comes right off the top of what the DSHS reports as "daily tests" How can I prove this? 3/n .
Well I have a couple of handy dandy charts with data. First one is the one you've already seen. The one below that shows the massive decline in testing quantity over the past 10 days. But if you overlay this on top of the "Pending Assignments " Chart... 4/n .pic.twitter.com/4CpBS3udZ7
Look at that! I couldn't have drawn up a better correlation if I tried.
Orange Line is Reported Tests per day in 7D avg. Blue Bars are the total # of "Pending Assignment" tests from the first spreadsheet in Tweet 1. As the backlog has been reduced, Test #s have crashed
5/n
.pic.twitter.com/zgrLUK3kPw
And so even though Positive Cases is the lowest since 7/3, they haven't declined enough as the "numerator" to overcome the massive decline in testing (denominator). Hence Positivity has increased. The divergence at the end of this graph is man-made. Not natural or possible.pic.twitter.com/bR1aAK9N9Y
So I don't have a problem with clearing a backlog of unassigned old tests. The problem I have is that its not advertised, its not reported on the portal, the media runs with positivity rate with blaring headlines. BTW I cut off the key of this graph, so I'm reposting.. 7/ENDpic.twitter.com/NBumQGse5s
8/PS To clarify further: These "pending assignments" (PA) were already counted in previous days totals, but filed away as PA. Now they are being audited & dups/errors are being thrown out. But since already counted, they have to be subtracted out.
So basically this data is total crap. Who knows when these tests were actually done. Are they re-allocating all the “pending” or only the positive ones?
No what's happening is there is an accounting process happening on all Tests that hadn't been fully reviewed and assigned to a county. But they were previously counted in the Testing totals. So the ones that get audited & thrown out that day, get removed from that day's total.
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