Could attackers improve? Sure, in theory. But in theory people could be convinced not to reuse passwords or make them their kid’s name. That said, I spend much of my life trying to convince people to use auth apps or U2F.
They do, the problem of password reuse and online password cracking is different, and no form of 2FA is particularly useful. The solution there is strong unique passwords.
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Password reuse + SMS 2FA > password reuse. How big? I can’t know for sure but given my experience, my hunch is that it’s much larger than one might guess because humans have threshold behaviors. They stay in certain lanes, drastically avoid others.
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You can teach the binomial theorem to a 10 year old, just don’t tell them it’s math. Tell people it’s probability theory, they cannot understand. Don’t, easy peasy. So phishing isn’t a default among the politically motivated opportunistic attackers, in my experience. \_(ツ)_/¯
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