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Timothy Ash
@tashecon
Economist, covering Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa. Key focus on Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, amongst others. Tweets represent my personal views. LUFC.
Financial ServicesCity of London, LondonJoined April 2016
Timothy Ash’s Tweets
Some of us have been arguing for this for the past year while the US and U.K. Treasuries sit on their arses and think up every possible reason not to do it.
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My latest:
Transfer the Seized Assets of the Russian Central Bank to Ukraine Now!
open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcf
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A Very honest and touching film about Ukrainian. I am privileged to be a part of this project which is so important for understanding what enemy Ukrainians are fighting against and what values they are fighting for.
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Yes, this #SlavaUkraini Premiere at the UN is open to the public. Priority will go, of course, to Ambassadors and Staffers. But there are approx 200 seats for non-members, friends of #Ukraine & #Ukrainian patriots. Just register at : bit.ly/3mwPLHZ. A badge will be given
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Twelve years of Tory rule in the U.K. and the housing sector does not work, the train service is crap, the NHS is on its knees, the energy market is a case of rip off Britain, the immigration service is not fit for service, and foreign trade is in disarray.
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How about the BOE taking urgent measures to reform the uk mortgage market with the dominance of short term fixes which leaves many borrowers massively vulnerable to rate hikes.
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No criticism of Putin then by Lula for invading Ukraine and committing war crimes?
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Perhaps Lula should encourage #Russia to end war and withdraw its military forces from #Ukraine. That would bring peace. twitter.com/zhang_heqing/s…
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Interesting that normalising for percentage scores, shows that on average people expect the lira to be 28% weaker, whoever wins, but 34% weaker on an Erdogan win, and only 22% weaker on an opposition win.
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If Erdogan wins the election where will the lira be at year end to the dollar?
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It’s interesting that I ran the same poll for an Erdogan versus an opposition win, but more than twice the number of people voted in the Erdogan poll, and the results are far more bearish.
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If Erdogan wins the election where will the lira be at year end to the dollar?
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The irony, Meghan and Harold are old Saxon names while William is a Norman “invaders” name.
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If the opposition win the election in Turkey where will the lira be at year end to the dollar?
- Stronger than 2021.9%
- 20.01-2533.6%
- 25.01-3024.9%
- 30+19.6%
1,698 votesFinal results
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If Erdogan wins the election where will the lira be at year end to the dollar?
- Stronger then 208.2%
- 20.01-2512%
- 25.01-3028.9%
- 30+50.8%
4,097 votesFinal results
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Seems to be the consensus that whoever wins the election, the lira has to be weaker.
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The messaging from the opposition is pretty clear that they will orient back to traditional alliances with the West.
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Fehim Taştekin: Turkey’s opposition foreign policy promises gradual departure from Erdogan’s
istanbulanalytics.com/fehim-tastekin
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Russian Defeat in Ukraine Day Parade?
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Further evidence that #Ukraine and its supporters need not worry about "humiliating" #Russia. #Putin does that far better than anyone else ever could. #StandWithUkraine️ atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea
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Hungary (p40) stands out as having not lifted a finger to help Ukraine or defend Europe. Hungary is not fit to be a NATO or EU member. Orban is a disgrace.
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Great report on scale of financial and military support for Ukraine, researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-
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Great report on scale of financial and military support for Ukraine, researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-
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Long overdue…
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Investigators search Kolomoisky, Avakov, incumbent top officials in unprecedented raid kyivindependent.com/law-enforcemen
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Microwave ready. You would never rely on Boris Johnson to make you anything, let alone a microwave ready meal.
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Breaking news: Brexit @YouGov polling shows 68% of people believe Brexit has been handled badly! 
41% even said “very badly”
41% even said “very badly”Show this thread
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The scandal is not that this guy leaked the files but that US security clearance was so lax that idiots like this had access to such info.
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I have absolutely no doubt that Putin is eager for Erdogan’s re-election and will do anything possible to engineer that. ANYTHING.
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Which foreign powers are most active in Turkey’s election?
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Should we expect more US sanctions on the Orban administration in Hungary?
- Yes56%
- No27.9%
- Unclear16.1%
298 votesFinal results
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I think Putin has files on his shelf filed under “ political technology” marked “Brexit”, “Trump”, “Orban”, and “Erdogan”. The common thread is weakening NATO and the Western alliance. They are all “active” projects.
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Brexit has been a catastrophe for the UK. Sunak needs to own it.
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“The fat lady has sung, there is no debate anymore. It’s an unmitigated disaster”
Danny Blanchflower is saying what we’re all thinking. Now the main political parties need to realise it.
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The case against Kobylev is a joke & embarrassment to Ukraine. His team won a $3bn case against Gazprom in Stockholm, and then the $5bn Crimea case this week. They were contracted to get big bonuses if the cases were won. They secured a $8bn win for Ukraine!
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У НАБУ заявили про нові докази у справі ексочільника "Нафтогазу" Коболєва: виявили 37 гігабайт листування
biz.censor.net/n3412082
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Conclusion is Erdogan is not going back to economic orthodoxy if he can help it. Default settings are massively negative real interest rates which leaves the lira very vulnerable. If Erdogan wins, I cannot see the lira doing anything but weaken.
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If Erdogan wins election will he go back to monetary policy orthodoxy?
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Pretty clear people think Putin is active trying to influence the Turkish election. I agree that Putin is desperate for Erdogan to be re-elected.
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Which foreign powers are most active in Turkey’s election?
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The Ukrainian spirit cannot be beaten. Russia is losing and will lose. Putin the c**t will end up hiding in a sewage pipe.
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Excited to be going to see Okean Elzy at the Royal Albert Hall tonight. Still some tickets available. Slava Ukraini!
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The Strategic Consequences of a Kılıçdaroğlu Victory Over Erdoğan - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Naftogas $5bn win in Hague tribunal will provide way to go for further cases, with inevitable Ukraine wins, and then allocation of $400bn frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
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Naftogas reporting it won $5bn arbitration case against Russia for assets lost as a result of illegal annexation of Crimea. Huge win for Ukraine - more to come. Putin’s invasion of UKR will eventually bankrupt RU as a result of lost markets & legal claims.
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Good BBC piece on Ukrainian pilots saying how good a UK government donated helicopter is - despite it having been used in the Falklands conflict over 40 yrs ago. Despite its age, the Ukrainian military says the aircraft will help in the war against Russia.
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If Erdogan wins election will he go back to monetary policy orthodoxy?
- Never46.6%
- Only if forced by markets21.5%
- Yes, typical 18032%
5,402 votesFinal results
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Some debate now, again, over whether Erdogan wins the election he will hire another Agbal and go to policy orthodoxy. I cannot see it unless markets put extreme pressure on Turkey. Erdogan’s views on rates are faith based.
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twitter.com/SelvaBaziki/st…4
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Which foreign powers are most active in Turkey’s election?
- Russia46.5%
- The Gulf states15.7%
- The US29.3%
- UK/EU8.5%
3,403 votesFinal results
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I agree with Erdogan that foreign influence is being brought to bear in elections but I would argue is that we are seeing unprecedented foreign financial inflows from Russia & Gulf to back his re-election. The West is doing nothing to support the opposition.
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Europe’s problem is not it’s strategic relationship with the US, but that it has idiots in leadership positions like Macro who just keep gifting Putin wins. And then leaders like Orban who appear to be on the other side.
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PS: Here's another example of a piece in which scattered fragments of reality and wishful thinking are assembled to try and argue that Russia will win in the long term, even though Europe is both divided and wholly subservient to the USA...
mk.ru/politics/2023/
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