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Taniel's profile
Taniel
Taniel
Taniel
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@Taniel

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TanielVerified account

@Taniel

Daniel Nichanian. crim justice, local elections, voting rights, pol theory. Founder & editorial director of The Appeal: Political Report. PhD/UChicago.

whatsontheballot.com
Joined July 2008

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    Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

    Taniel Retweeted Taniel

    🚨 NEW SITUATION. There's now evidence that there are some precincts still fully missing from the IDP results. And that other precincts have been double counted. And this isn't just in Sioux City, @CoatsandLinen confirms. The IDP results are NOT "100% reporting."https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1226320596520361984 …

    Taniel added,

    TanielVerified account @Taniel
    "Sioux City 5" & "Sioux City 20" are reporting exactly-identical R1, R2, & delegate allocation results for every single candidate (turnout=98). Clear mistake. Both say Biden 4, Buttigieg 3, Sanders, 2. AND THAT'S NOT ALL. That's 9 delegates... but neither has 9 to even give.
    Show this thread
    5:57 PM - 8 Feb 2020
    • 2,906 Retweets
    • 7,420 Likes
    • Jack K Erjavec #Fight4OnesYouDontKnow Jimmy Butlerian Jihad Kay Dawn haunted parker 👻🎃✨ no justice no peace yusupha sanneh DJ Dan Blonsky manal
    164 replies 2,906 retweets 7,420 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        It goes without saying that every media channel that's reporting results should immediately remove its "100% reporting" & clean this stuff up.

        13 replies 309 retweets 1,957 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        This has nothing to do with "correcting 95 precints anymore." Multiple precincts are entirely missing from these results, & are being reported as having the results of other precincts.

        7 replies 363 retweets 1,639 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Taniel Retweeted Deirdre Baker

        🚨 IDP (& so also media outlets republishing IDP #s) is inaccurately reporting same exact results for "Davenport 52" & "Bettendorf 52" (per @CoatsandLinen and I) Story below confirms the reported results are those of B52. So DAVENPORT 52 is missing. 🚨https://twitter.com/deirdrebaker/status/1224736736464510977 …

        Taniel added,

        Deirdre Baker @deirdrebaker
        I wrote a blog on impressions from the caucus I covered last night in Bettendorf, Iowa, and also point out that technology is wonderful, as long as it works: https://bakersheartbeat.blogspot.com/2020/02/buttigieg-wins-in-one-precinct.html … pic.twitter.com/YjwAz3mnoI
        16 replies 231 retweets 926 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Taniel Retweeted Tadd Ruetenik Ⓥ  🌻

        This person tweeted results of "Davenport 52" on Monday (6 days ago) at 2:42am. Have not been able to verify, but timestamp makes at least confident this isn't fake produced over past few days. If correct, missing result are 2-2-2 Warren/Sanders/Buttigieg.https://twitter.com/ruetenik/status/1224599072532848640?s=20 …

        Taniel added,

        Tadd Ruetenik Ⓥ  🌻 @ruetenik
        Davenport D-52: The results of the first alignment. Removing unviable candidates resulted in nearly equal distribution of total voters among Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. 2 delegates each. #IowaCaucuses2020 pic.twitter.com/9ujfsvmDvW
        Show this thread
        8 replies 136 retweets 593 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Results the IDP (and thru it CNN, ABC, etc) report for Davenport 52 & Bettendorf 52 combined: —Buttigieg 6, Sanders 6, Klobuchar 4, Biden 4 Actual results: —Buttigieg 5, Sanders 5, Warren 2, Biden 2, Klobuchar 2 (Boosts Sanders (and Warren) over Pete in popular vote.)

        8 replies 117 retweets 624 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        more 🚨: Sioux City 20 is missing from the IDP results; instead Sioux City 5 is reported twice. (And incorrectly.) A local paper reported this yesterday. The real Sioux City 20, which is missing, "overwhelmingly voted for Bernie Sanders." https://www.siouxlandproud.com/news/sioux-city-caucus-precinct-accused-of-invalid-results/ …pic.twitter.com/2oDPDOUbJ0

        46 replies 636 retweets 1,793 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        The chair of the Woodbury County Democratic Party (where Sioux City is located) is quoted in that newspaper saying that they have informed the IDP of this error. As of Saturday night, the IDP still shows the results of Sioux City 20 as tho it was Sioux City 5.

        12 replies 186 retweets 866 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        What we know so far about the Sioux City mess. What the IDP is reporting for Sioux City 5 & 20 combined: Biden 8-Sanders 6-Buttigieg 4. What it should be: Biden 3-Sanders 3-Buttigieg 2. Plus unknown delegates of a precinct that we only know Sanders won. [Big drop for Biden.]

        9 replies 124 retweets 620 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Taniel Retweeted Bret Hayworth

        🚨 An Iowa reporter was in Sioux City 20 on Monday night. (This is one of numoerous precincts that is entirely absent from the IDP results.) He reported that Sanders got 34 of 68 votes in first round; Warren & Biden were only other viable candidates.https://twitter.com/SCJBretH/status/1224511998119043072 …

        Taniel added,

        Bret Hayworth @SCJBretH
        On first grouping to candidates, HUGE contingent for @BernieSanders. Second here Sioux City 20 looks to be @joebiden, then @ewarren. Klobuchar, Steyer, Yang, Buttigieg wont be viable here. 34 of 68 are for Sanders.#IACaucus
        15 replies 245 retweets 897 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        What we know about Sioux City What IDP is reporting for Sioux City 5 & 20 combined: Biden 8-Sanders 6-Buttigieg 4. What it *likely* is, per reporting from Mon. & Thur (see above): Sanders 6: Biden 4-Buttigieg 2-Warren 1 (So -0.84 SDE Biden, -0.42 SDE Pete, +0.21 SDE Warren.)

        11 replies 104 retweets 568 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Taniel Retweeted Taniel

        as a coda to this thread, I will add these estimates I tweeted separately on the 'takeaways' out of the *missing precincts* in Sioux Falls and Davenport:https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1226359220951486466 …

        Taniel added,

        TanielVerified account @Taniel
        🚨"Sioux City 20" & "D52" are missing from IDP result, per @CoatsandLinen & I tonight. We IDed likely results based on IA press reports. "Sioux City 5" & "B52" were reported twice instead. Net changes, in SDE: Warren + 1.0 Sanders -0.4 Buttigieg -0.8 Klobuchar -0.8 Biden -1.7 pic.twitter.com/kpWPBzOaBa
        Show this thread
        4 replies 48 retweets 236 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Based on some replies, I want everyone to get to verify this for themselves. [Many have.] Here confirm that, as of now, D52/B52 & Sioux City 5/20 are duplicate: https://results.thecaucuses.org/  Links to reports of real results in thread above. (Still chasing other missing precincts.)

        4 replies 41 retweets 216 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 8

        Taniel Retweeted Taniel

        For sake of completion of this thread, I am dropping in this tweet about a 3rd similar situation—a missing precinct whose results are still unknown, but where the duplicated precinct was favorable to Sanders. More tomorrow. (And now good night for real.)https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1226398534733307904 …

        Taniel added,

        TanielVerified account @Taniel
        Coming up still: @CoatsandLinen is looking for results of Blue Grass, yet another precinct missing from results (at least the 3rd, maybe more). Results currently given for Blue Grass duplicate those of D31, & are good for Sanders; we don't know what ppl actually voted yet. https://twitter.com/EthanSCorey/status/1226371646207995904 …
        18 replies 40 retweets 226 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel Feb 9

        Taniel Retweeted Taniel

        I wish to end thread above with info that all three situations that @CoatsandLinen and I reported on in this particular thread last night were corrected today There are still somewhat related issues lurking, as well as many other errors, however:https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1226699705683451906 …

        Taniel added,

        TanielVerified account @Taniel
        13) Des Moines County's 3rd precinct is very incorrect, per what the county's co-chair told @CoatsandLinen today. Said there were about 140 fewer voters than IDP is now reporting. [Note: What she told us of county delegates would mean no change for Sanders/Buttigieg.]
        Show this thread
        5 replies 20 retweets 109 likes
        Show this thread
      16. End of conversation

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