Failure to calibrate using actual results.
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Truth. Listen to George,
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1. Why's start date “root cause” of poor forecast? 2. Where’s past performance for reference class forecasting 3. Can’t U find utilization in labor accounting system? 4. Where’s UR DSM (Dependency Structure Matrix) from the systems engineering folks?https://is.gd/EUALFL
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We need to educate :) start dates are often paper based aligned with quarters and not contingent on teams being formed, available and committed. Lots of different root causes, but when I see a start date assumed three months out, I shudder.
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5. Forecasting can be just an excuse for risk transferring.
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6 - Urgencies that become expedites
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Humans are inherently bad at forecasting the future Stealthholders (stakeholders you didn’t know about) who will change priority & requirements. Why have an end date? Projects finish when you turn them off, otherwise project is ongoing (refinement, new features, maintenance etc)
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In other words, flow.
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Unknowns Last minute opportunities Staff or leadership turnover
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Forecast estimates (with 10-30 % probability of being achieved, based on invalid assumptions like required skilled+ experienced team available from start date i.e. a model in progress) become the committed and reference plan that must be delivered, by all/any means necessary.
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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