Good Judgment Inc

@superforecaster

Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of . Test your forecasting prowess at

goodjudgment.com
Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2014.
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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    The Global Risks 2020 has this profound but vague prediction: "There is a possibility of an extended low-growth period, akin to the 1970s, if lack of coordinated action continues." Our SF workshop says the implied probability ranges 10%–90%, median of 35%.

    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    The are a day away! What has already been a wild season will have its first contest. Who will take the first prize? ? Make your forecasts now!

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  3. 27. sij

    Superforecasters share their thoughts on the chances of a US recession in 2020. Take a look on Quartz!

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    21. sij

    . raked in huge fundraising numbers in Q4 of 2019. What are his odds of landing the Democratic nomination? Get 's take.

    1 reply 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    20. sij

    The new Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some rigor. What's the implied probability of: "More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)

    13 replies 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 19 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    19. sij

    If you missed covering the Global Judgment Challenge this morning, don't fret! There's a rebroadcast at 1:00PM ET today. In the mean time, look back at Fareed's first look at the s back in 2015.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    18. sij

    ... & I'll look @ how respondents fared in predicting answers to the big questions of 2019 in 's Global Judgment Challenge

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  8. 17. sij

    Great news, forecasters! In collaboration with , the 2020 Global Judgment Challenge has launched on ! Check out the show this Sunday for some coverage of the results from 2019 and what we have in store for 2020.
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. sij

    Sparring between & highlighted this week's . Will that impact their respective standings with their neighbors in the ? Will it help or hurt and ? Make and update your forecasts now!

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    6. sij

    The is less than a month away! Who will pull off the first win of the Democratic primary season? ? ? ? ? Someone else? Make your predictions now!

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  11. 3. sij

    Start 2020 right by forecasting on !

    Will the death of lead to military conflict between and the US? A continuation of the status quo of proxy fights? ? Make your forecasts now!
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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. pro 2019.

    GJOpen has just launched our Red Carpet Challenge to mark the advent of awards season. We've started with 6 and 4 questions. Give the GG for Best Drama a look now!

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    14. pro 2019.

    Have some last-minute gift shopping to do? Remember that GJ's offering 50% off our online training. The course covers the basic skills that forecasters need to succeed in any forecasting environment! Use code CYBER50 (enter code on the Confirm & Pay page)

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    19. pro 2019.

    Good Judgment is working on a series of topics for Superforecasters to tackle as part of our new project on Global Risks in 2020. Which would you most like to see forecasted? If you have other topics in mind, post them as a reply. Share your thoughts and retweet with impunity!

    6 replies 8 proslijeđenih tweetova 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  15. 22. pro 2019.

    On what global risks do you think Superforecasters should forecast for 2020? Vote now, make your own suggestions, and retweet!

    Good Judgment is working on a series of topics for Superforecasters to tackle as part of our new project on Global Risks in 2020. Which would you most like to see forecasted? If you have other topics in mind, post them as a reply. Share your thoughts and retweet with impunity!
    1 proslijeđeni tweet 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  16. 19. pro 2019.

    Good Judgment is working on a series of topics for Superforecasters to tackle as part of our new project on Global Risks in 2020. Which would you most like to see forecasted? If you have other topics in mind, post them as a reply. Share your thoughts and retweet with impunity!

    6 replies 8 proslijeđenih tweetova 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    18. pro 2019.
    Odgovor korisnicima

    While just one question isn't enough to draw firm conclusions (and anyway I don't have access to Betfair data), it's interesting to see how things played out since July. Assuming no major surprise by end of December, here's the picture.

    1 reply 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    9. pro 2019.

    One of the most fundamental insights I've had since exploring the decision-making space is that all decisions are predictions. Every time you decide anything, you're making a judgment about what's going to happen as a result of the action(s) you take. 1/

    5 replies 28 proslijeđenih tweetova 99 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  19. 14. pro 2019.

    Have some last-minute gift shopping to do? Remember that GJ's offering 50% off our online training. The course covers the basic skills that forecasters need to succeed in any forecasting environment! Use code CYBER50 (enter code on the Confirm & Pay page)

    4 proslijeđena tweeta 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  20. 10. pro 2019.

    Parties to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty failed to produce a consensus statement after their 2015 review conference. Will they be able to come together this spring? wants to know. Make your forecast now!

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