A theory: It has been accepted scientific wisdom that the virus’ R0 is ~2.4 and the CFR between 1-2%. The data and common sense suggest to me that the R0 is much higher, perhaps approaching measles at 12-18. If this is true, the CFR must be much lower perhaps similar to the flu.
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Replying to @BillAckman
Very nice paper (preprint) from Los Alamos researchers at the Center for Non-Linear Studies (gotta love that!) estimating an R0 as high as 6.6 and a doubling time of 2-3 days. IMO, this is one of the best early estimates. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1 …
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