Stratechery Plus adds Greatest of All Talk
Announcing the newest addition to the Stratechery Plus bundle: Greatest of All Talk, a podcast about basektball, life, and national parks.
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Netflix's New Chapter
Netflix waited out Blockbuster with better economics, and it's seeking to do the same with its competitors today; the key to the company's differentiation, though, is increasingly creativity, not execution.
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AI and the Big Five
Given the success of existing companies with new epochs, the most obvious place to start when thinking about the impact of AI is with the big five: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.
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The 2022 Stratechery Year in Review
The most popular and most important posts on Stratechery in 2022.
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Consoles and Competition
Reviewing the history of video games explains why Sony is dominant today, and why Microsoft is actually introducing competition, not limiting it.
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AI Homework
The first obvious casualty of large language models is homework: the real training for everyone, though, and the best way to leverage AI, will be in verifying and editing information.
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Narratives
What Elon Musk got wrong about Twitter, journalists and VCs got wrong about FTX, and Peter Thiel got wrong about crypto and AI — and why I made many of the same mistakes along the way.
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Stratechery Plus Adds Sharp China with Sinocism’s Bill Bishop
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Meta Myths
Meta deserves a bit of a discount off of its recent highs, but a number of myths about its business have caused the market to over-react.
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Chips and China
Understanding the path the semiconductor industry took to today both shows where China needs to go, and also explains why the risks for geopolitical conflict are higher than ever.
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Microsoft Full Circle
Microsoft has come full circle from the company that cared more about Windows than Office; the retirement of the Office name is possible precisely because Microsoft gave up on Windows and went to the cloud.
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Meta Meets Microsoft
Meta's new hardware is more impressive than expected, and the Microsoft partnership makes a lot of sense. The question is if Meta will capture enough value to outweigh their costs.
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Nvidia In the Valley
Nvidia is in the valley in terms of gaming, the data center, and the omniverse; if it makes it to future heights its margins will be well-earned.
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Sharp Tech and Stratechery Plus
Stratechery is launching a new podcast and expanding the value of a Stratechery Plus subscription
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The AI Unbundling
AI is starting to unbundle the final part of the idea propagation value chain: idea creation and substantiation. The impacts will be far-reaching.
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The Services iPhone
Apple introduced some impressive product updates; the real news, though, were the prices, which suggested that Apple is fully embracing being a services company.
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Rights, Laws, and Google
Google is not bound by the Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Amendments, but its actions in a false positive CSAM case show that it is flouting the spirit behind them.
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Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends
Trends in medium, AI, and user interaction underpin Instagram's response to TikTok, and will determine Meta's long-term moat.
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Political Chips
Chips are the clearest example that the economic efficiencies will not be the ultimate decider of technology's end state: politics will play an important role.
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Big Ten Blame
The Big Ten's recent expansion is being blamed on Fox and ESPN, but it is actually an example of differentiated content extracting maximum value through consolidation
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Spotify, Netflix, and Aggregation
The original definition of Aggregation Theory emphasized the importance of commoditized supply; that makes Spotify more of an Aggregator than Netflix
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Data and Definitions
Explaining exactly why Apple's approach to ATT is anti-competitive
stratechery.com/2022/data-and-
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Zero-COVID and Free Speech
Zero-COVID is possible, but few of us in the West are willing to pay the costs; the exact same reasoning applies to free speech; in both cases China-lite is the worst possible strategy.
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Thin Platforms
The Microsoft and Stripe developer keynotes were both examples of the rise of Thin Platforms.
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Warner Bros. Discovery
Warner Bros. Discovery is a company that makes a lot of sense, both because of its content and also its strategy, which treats streaming as an additional channel, not a reason-for-being.
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Cable's Last Laugh
Cable companies survived the great unbundling thanks to selling Internet service; they may be best place to make the bundle of the future.
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Beyond Aggregation: Amazon as a Service
Amazon's new Buy With Prime announced the arrival of Amazon Logistics as a Service, and is a big red flag for Shopify.
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Back to the Future of Twitter
Twitter should go private and return to its pre-2012 approach of being a centralized service with third-party clients.
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DALL-E, the Metaverse, and Zero Marginal Content
Machine learning-generated content has major implications on the Metaverse and beyond, because it brings the marginal cost of content production to zero.
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(Your objection is probably covered in the Article 🙏)
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Why Netflix Should Sell Ads
Netflix has been resolutely opposed to selling ads, prioritizing the user experience; however, the market conditions for streaming have changed, and so should Netflix.
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Show this thread
The Current Thing
If businesses are subject to Aggregation Theory, then so are ideas: this is the root of the "The Current Thing" meme, and it should drive a re-evaluation of how we think about moderating content on the Internet.
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Tech and War
The reaction to the Ukraine invasion has been a demonstration of tech capabilities; those capabilities may be the key to compelling China to pressure Russia.
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Shopify's Evolution
Shopify should build an advertising business to complement Shop Pay and the Shopify Fulfillment Network
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Digital Advertising in 2022
The advertising has shifted from a Google-Facebook duopoly to one where Amazon and potentially Apple are major forces.
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Gaming the Smiling Curve
The spate of recent acquisitions in the gaming space — Take Two and Zynga, Microsoft and Activision, and Sony and Bungie — make sense in the context of the Smiling Curve.
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The Intel Split
It appears that Intel's partnership with TSMC is much larger than it first seemed; the implications for Intel as whole are massive.
stratechery.com/2022/the-intel
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The 2021 Stratechery Year in Review
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The Great Bifurcation
Tracing the evolution of tech's three eras, and why the fourth era — the Metaverse — is defined by its bifurcation with the physical world.
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The Amazon Empire Strikes Back
Amazon's logistics investment makes the company increasingly attractive to 3rd party merchants.
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