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stefan_arrr's profile
Stefan RuijsenÆrs
Stefan RuijsenÆrs
Stefan RuijsenÆrs
@stefan_arrr

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Stefan RuijsenÆrs

@stefan_arrr

Software engineer at a quantitative trading firm • I speak EN/FR/NL/ES/CAT • Build the future 🚀

London, England
stefanruijsenaars.com
Joined October 2010

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    1. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin May 10
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      First movers define the game. If China did not lockdown, would we even consider it? Where would we be today?

      3 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
    2. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe May 11
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      Replying to @garybasin

      The aggressiveness w/ which China locked down and the lack of trust in their official data definitely made me very nervous. If it had happened in Germany or somewhere that you could trust what they were saying, I think very different

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    3. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin May 11
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe

      Yes exactly

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe May 11
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      Replying to @garybasin

      Diamond Princess was a bit of a counter weight, but I think argument there was that it was a fatality rate of 1% w/ sufficient medical care so wasn't clear that it would be that low at scale.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe May 11
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe @garybasin

      I am more inclined now to think that viral load matters quite a bit such that infection rate on a cruise ship probably significantly higher than general pop. But data still sucks so hard to say

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Stefan RuijsenÆrs‏ @stefan_arrr May 11
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe @garybasin

      I've always believed viral load matters a lot but is there any stronger evidence for this at this point? https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them … suggests it does, but it only offered https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/ … as a source

      9:11 AM - 11 May 2020
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      • Gary Basin
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe May 11
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          Replying to @stefan_arrr @garybasin

          No I don't have any stronger evidence. Just seems to explain a lot of the patterns so using it as a base case.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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