Weird how people are letting their guard down. My guard level is steadily trending higher. Risk seems to be increasing steadily rather than decreasing to me.
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Replying to @vgr
I think most counties are in a genuine eye of the storm, with legitimately less risk/day (than weeks ago) for at least another few days. My 500k county e.g. has found only ~18new_cases/day each of the last 14 days -- despite an evergrowing infection base.
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Replying to @DoTheWeirdStuff
That’s primary risk. Every other kind of risk is growing for everybody. The virus is just the closed-world zeroth-order game with known rules. Outer orders are increasingly getting worse — financial, economic, supply chain, trade, global security...
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This piece by @jgreenhall spells out some of the systemic risks. Now 2 months old but just as relevant today:https://link.medium.com/nZgiUmkIS4
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