Ya, may be tough now. Even if we reopened tomorrow, consumers will be gunshy for a year+
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Replying to @garybasin
Yea. LIke best case seems like a slow and steady recovery? I get the idea that if demand wasn't destroyed but just deferred that would be super bullish but seems like so many jobs lost/biz closed that it would be hard for that to happen. Maybe with more aggressive stimulus?
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Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe
Crazy unemployment benefits maybe will do it. We'd see inflation fast, I bet. I still thinking buying puts on Treasury bonds here is a good trade. May be the start of a generational trade
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Replying to @garybasin
Yea, that is my current thinking too. Huge stimulus now and we could V up but likely to see inflation somewhere - not clear to me if it will be CPI or asset prices or somewhere else though? What's your thinking on treasure puts?
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Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe
Stimulus would have to target unemployed and underemployed. So something like UBI. That becomes more attractive than being a cashier or working in a factory, so you get wage inflation there. Assets will inflate too, of course.
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Replying to @garybasin @TaylorPearsonMe
Treasury skew is usually opposite of equities, so puts are cheaper than calls. Treasuries rally in a panic. But fall in inflation, as rates rise.
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Replying to @garybasin @TaylorPearsonMe
Not if there's yield curve control, which I wouldn't totally rule out
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Replying to @garybasin @TaylorPearsonMe
And more recently, Australia and Japan style In 1949 CPI was ~20% and 3-5Y yields were at just ~1.5%
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Replying to @stefan_arrr @garybasin
Is there a good write up on this somewhere?
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Stefan RuijsenÆrs Retweeted Stefan RuijsenÆrs
https://twitter.com/stefan_arrr/status/1251245531634024459?s=21 …https://twitter.com/stefan_arrr/status/1251245531634024459 …
Stefan RuijsenÆrs added,
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Note the source and the date...
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