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stefan_arrr's profile
Stefan RuijsenÆrs
Stefan RuijsenÆrs
Stefan RuijsenÆrs
@stefan_arrr

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Stefan RuijsenÆrs

@stefan_arrr

Software engineer at a quantitative trading firm • I speak EN/FR/NL/ES/CAT • Build the future 🚀

London, England
stefanruijsenaars.com
Joined October 2010

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    1. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe Apr 19
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      The narrative around a V-shaped recovery sounds like the fan base of a team that was pre-season top 25 and lost to two mediocre teams at the start of the season. It seemed some promising a few months ago. Surely they will turn it around? They rarely do...

      10 replies 2 retweets 46 likes
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    2. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Apr 19
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe

      Ya, may be tough now. Even if we reopened tomorrow, consumers will be gunshy for a year+

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe Apr 19
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      Replying to @garybasin

      Yea. LIke best case seems like a slow and steady recovery? I get the idea that if demand wasn't destroyed but just deferred that would be super bullish but seems like so many jobs lost/biz closed that it would be hard for that to happen. Maybe with more aggressive stimulus?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Apr 19
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe

      Crazy unemployment benefits maybe will do it. We'd see inflation fast, I bet. I still thinking buying puts on Treasury bonds here is a good trade. May be the start of a generational trade

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe Apr 19
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      Replying to @garybasin

      Yea, that is my current thinking too. Huge stimulus now and we could V up but likely to see inflation somewhere - not clear to me if it will be CPI or asset prices or somewhere else though? What's your thinking on treasure puts?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Apr 19
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe

      Stimulus would have to target unemployed and underemployed. So something like UBI. That becomes more attractive than being a cashier or working in a factory, so you get wage inflation there. Assets will inflate too, of course.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Apr 19
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      Replying to @garybasin @TaylorPearsonMe

      Treasury skew is usually opposite of equities, so puts are cheaper than calls. Treasuries rally in a panic. But fall in inflation, as rates rise.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Stefan RuijsenÆrs‏ @stefan_arrr Apr 19
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      Replying to @garybasin @TaylorPearsonMe

      Not if there's yield curve control, which I wouldn't totally rule out

      10:34 AM - 19 Apr 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin Apr 19
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          Replying to @stefan_arrr @TaylorPearsonMe

          True, ww2 style

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Stefan RuijsenÆrs‏ @stefan_arrr Apr 19
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          Replying to @garybasin @TaylorPearsonMe

          And more recently, Australia and Japan style In 1949 CPI was ~20% and 3-5Y yields were at just ~1.5%

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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