Agree on problems counting all infections and deaths — why I'm helping a wide/random serological survey project. But for official cases tracked by CDC, with all their biases, at least one would hope to see lag from slope change of log-chart for cases vs deaths. Both flatten 3/28.
-
-
Replying to @BrendanEich @lmeyerov and
When will we get results of the serological tests in California?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @hal_jordan87 @lmeyerov and
The Santa Clara County and LA County ones are still being done, I haven't heard when they'll stop but goal was end of month. I'll ask.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
-
-
Replying to @BrendanEich @hal_jordan87 and
Conclusion The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
4 replies 7 retweets 18 likes -
Replying to @BrendanEich @hal_jordan87 and
The numerator can be (has been any place we've looked closely at) wrong as denominator. Everywhere there has been a surge in SARS2 deaths:surge in all-cause deaths too. Using just *confirmed* SARS2 deaths/estimated infection rates from seroprevalence will be a wild underestimate.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @toad_spotted @hal_jordan87 and
Deaths are now being counted without +ve test result, so that mode of skeptical argument cuts both ways. Let's use official death numbers pending more data, or we'll get nowhere. Anyway, it's clear now that C19 is deadly to vulnerable cohorts, no need to exaggerate.
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @BrendanEich @hal_jordan87 and
0.1% of the population in Brooklyn and Queens already died, without including a large surge of deaths at home without attribution to the disease. 10-20% exposure in NYC is plausible, indicating around 1% IFR.
3 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
"~10x confirmed cases" has been a good rule of thumb for actual cases so far - this claim of up to 80x seems like an outlier?
-
-
Replying to @stefan_arrr @toad_spotted and
Stefan RuijsenÆrs Retweeted Trevor Bedford
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643293103075329?s=21 …https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643293103075329 …
Stefan RuijsenÆrs added,
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
