Statsguyphd

@statsguyphd

Just created this to answer a student's question. I do not care for social media, but maybe I can help demystify or correct some misconceptions about statistics

Joined June 2020

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  1. Pinned Tweet
    5 Nov 2020

    I meant to provide this link (someone put this kind of work in Jupyter and began expanding the datasets):

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  2. 5 Nov 2020

    Thank you to whoever took this over and developed an interest in the data collection and exploration/analysis. I am glad people are getting interested in learning this stuff!

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  3. 5 Nov 2020

    Because all the ladies knew he could...be discrete beforehand!

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  4. 5 Nov 2020

    For the few of you that liked the stats jokes, I will end the night with one: Why was Mr. Bernoulli Bayes known as the "man about town"? (answer in the reply)

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  5. 5 Nov 2020

    Who knew that with less than 100 lines of code you could make half the country wish you were dead, the other half appreciate math, and approximately 0.00000001% laugh at what you thought were high quality stats jokes.

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  6. 5 Nov 2020

    It was suggested I add a profile pic since evidently actual bots don't have them (did not know that). I like chess, so now my profile pic is related. Thanks for the suggestion.

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  7. 5 Nov 2020

    Now I am being called a fascist as well. I am trying to remember the stoics: Weak men are murderous in mobs, cowards bold in the crowd. I will leave this account up, but I will not engage with the hatefulness I am receiving.

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  8. 5 Nov 2020

    *interferer Look, I would like to point out that no one has to trust anything and you are strongly encouraged to run your own analysis. That's sort of the point. Learn to code a bit, collect some data, and run some analysis.

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  9. 5 Nov 2020

    So I am being accused of being: - a Russsian bot - a Fake account - a Qanon handler (unless I misread that) - a criminal - an election interfere At this point I want to go back to make silly stats jokes that no one laughed at.

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  10. 5 Nov 2020

    People are asking for the code not in image form. I was just told I can use this site to do it, so here you go.

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  11. 5 Nov 2020

    I should make clear that I am not trying to endorse or refute any political party. I'm analyzing data and I feel we should all be free to analyze data. Ideally I wouldn't even know who the numbers are associated with and I could be free to just analyze them in the blind.

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  12. 5 Nov 2020

    16 - What is undeniable is that the first digit frequencies of Biden's vote totals is extremely anomalous in comparison to Trump's.

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  13. 5 Nov 2020

    15 - Here: Lesperance, M., Reed, W. J., Stephens, M. A., Tsao, C., & Wilton, B. (2016). Assessing Conformance with Benford’s Law: Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Simultaneous Confidence Intervals. PLoS ONE, 11(3).

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  14. 5 Nov 2020

    14 - What is notable is the extreme difference in their p-values. The drawback to this analysis is that there is a Better test for Benford's goodness of fit. It is the Watson version of the Cramer von Mises test (U2). You can read about why it is better here (next message)

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  15. 5 Nov 2020

    13 - Here are the respective p-values: Biden 1.5076774999383611e-27 Trump 0.00048111250713426005

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  16. 5 Nov 2020

    12 - And here are the raw numbers (1 to 9): Biden: [86, 35, 52, 69, 79, 62, 42, 28, 22] Trump: [115, 85, 89, 57, 35, 36, 27, 16, 16]

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  17. 5 Nov 2020

    11 - In the end, Biden's vote data from that page is far more anomalous than Trump's. Here is what it looks like visually:

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  18. 5 Nov 2020

    10 - And the rest of that script:

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  19. 5 Nov 2020

    9 - The final process, put together, has some additional code to handle data and count the digits from that webpage (comes in 2 parts, first script setup and function definition, then the script on next tweet):

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  20. 5 Nov 2020

    8 - To do that, you take the total number of observations (number of numbers that the first digit counts are derived from) and multiply them by the Benford's distribution frequencies accordingly. This looks like this:

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