1/ What will happen to crypto in 2022?
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2/ 2021 was a great year, for both crypto and especially.
For crypto, we carried forward the early spark of DeFi summer into NFT spring, and L1 Autumn, generating billions in gains
Most importantly, it led to an explosion of building by the smartest on the planet
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3/ There are many voices of criticism:
- "DeFi is just printing tokens"
- "gamefi is just yield farming with extra steps"
- "NFTs are just jpegs"
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4/ They are not entirely wrong - it can feel like the recent cohort of crypto apps just takes an existing service and adds a token a la 2017. Many apps are really just exchanges, pictures, and games with token incentives layered on top.
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5/ For me, the most exciting thing about crypto is it will facilitate the Great Migration of human activity from the physical world to the Internet.
This will create a world where outcomes are not bound by physical laws of gender, geography etc, but only by human ingenuity.
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6/ Previously, most economic activity was constrained to the physical world because there was no concept of property rights (i.e. digital scarcity) on the internet.
Both labor and capital stayed away from the web, as noone had any property - digital communism
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7/ Crypto fixes this. If Web2 was communism driven by dictatorial regimes of advertising regimes, Web3 introduces capitalism to the internet.
NFTs and fungible tokens are early examples of this - the former allows accumulation of unique things, the latter a piece of public goods
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8/ But as labor and capital makes web3 their primary home, the apps built on top will look completely different from web2 businesses, and even 2021 protocols.
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9/ Consider the following: imagine a game with a village, which has buildings costing time and resources to build, and hosting institutions worth defending (e.g. a DAO)
Now imagine this village can be destroyed by attacks from other villages and dragons.
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10/ One could imagine full time mercenary jobs spring up in this new reality. Diplomatic channels formed, trade routes opened.
I guess old guys call this the "metaverse" - I only point out that web3 realities will NOT be just Minecraft with a token.
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11/ The same transformation will take place in DeFi. Today, the most successful DeFi apps are those with close analogues in the web2 world - exchanges, insurance, etc
We will see an extension of DeFi experiments not possible in web2 - like CRV/CVX bribing DAO votes
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12/ Among early adopters, the cognitive transition to web3 has already begun.
Most 2016-2017 founders counted wealth in dollars - which is why eventually cashed out (at top or bottom)
This time, crypto rich are cash poor -
they just want to own a bigger share of the future.
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13/ (Minus a few mansions for some kek)
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14/ I think about my work as playing a small role in bringing about the future earlier rather than later.
And to strive for to be the leading money of that future.
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15/ Congratulations for making it through the rollercoaster that was 2021.
May the moon shine brighter this coming year 🌕🥂
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