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ssica3003's profile
MetaJess
MetaJess
MetaJess
@ssica3003

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MetaJess

@ssica3003

Expect a cycle

Lisbon, Portugal
ssica3003.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      Collective action problems and Covid: a thread.

      9 replies 49 retweets 134 likes
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    2. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      Many people, rightly, point out that Covid is not just a matter of individual choice, because it is a negative externality. Mary's behaviour affects John whether he likes it or not, because he can catch the virus from her.

      2 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
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    3. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      Many negative externalities can be addressed privately. In Manhattan, a tower was going to block the view of some loft owners. So the loft owners paid the developer $11m not to build there. Ronald Coase, who won the Nobel for this, would be proud.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/nyregion/manhattan-real-estate-views-air-rights.html …

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    4. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      When it's too difficult for the affected parties to deal with each other, like when someone is polluting the air, you may need the state to get involved. That's an obvious reason you might want the govt to intervene to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

      1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
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    5. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      But there's another reason too: the difficulty of *collective action*. Collective action problems exist when everyone (or almost everyone) might want to do something, but they can't trust each other not to cheat. And for the agreement to work, it's all-or-nothing.

      1 reply 2 retweets 24 likes
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    6. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      Sea fisheries are a real-life example of this. All fishermen would be better off if they could all agree not to catch too much cod, to keep stocks high. But they can't be sure other fishermen won't be greedy, so *all* have an incentive to overfish now while they still can.

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
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    7. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      This is a "tragedy of the commons". The prisoner's dilemma is another example - you cannot be sure the other guy won't snitch, so you better snitch too, even if you'd both be better off staying quiet. Imagine that game with a hundred prisoners where one snitch ruins you all.

      1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
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    8. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      Now: Covid. One proposal is to relax distancing measures and let people decide for themselves what they want to do. If you're over 60 and don't want to risk dying, you can self-isolate until the vaccine comes. Everyone else can go back to normal.

      1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
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    9. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      Sounds nice, except for the 12m+ people who would be self-isolating for months, with an increased risk of death anyway since (as we saw with care homes) true isolation is really, really hard to achieve. But anyway - it also ignores the collective action problem.

      2 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
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    10. Sam Bowman‏Verified account @s8mb 30 Sep 2020
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      *Everyone* is worse off in this scenario than in another where the virus is suppressed altogether, just like the fishermen: getting Covid sucks even if you don't die, and may cause permanent organ damage, we don't know. And nobody wants their older loved ones to die.

      3 replies 3 retweets 22 likes
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      MetaJess‏ @ssica3003 30 Sep 2020
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      Here is where your reasoning chain breaks 👍

      5:18 AM - 30 Sep 2020
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      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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