MetaJess

wait so you're saying third order isn't a thing and they think it is? or what?

Pretty much yeah. I think they do both second and third order wrong in general. Third order is possible but with a lot of caveats. Too many variables. If you get third order right out of it is mostly luck.

The right way to "sense make" is not to predict but simply to recognise the whole range of possible tail risks and hedge appropriately. Mainstream "sense makers" do not realise this and instead try to make prediction.

who are those mainstream sense makers?

Won't tag, but you can google. Dave snowden a good example. And anyone that claims to be in "futures thinking" consulting for governments

As far as I know I have always said that you can’t make predictions but you can evaluate plausibilities, identify outlier views and create anticipatory triggers. Not aware I “futures thinking” either, I create methods and tools for sense-making

Hey Dave, hows it going? Me and my internet buds accidentally use the same two words that you do for your work but we mean it in a different way.

Which words?