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ssica3003's profile
MetaJess
MetaJess
MetaJess
@ssica3003

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MetaJess

@ssica3003

Expect a cycle

Lisbon, Portugal
ssica3003.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. RIVAL VOICES‏ @nosilverv 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @ssica3003

      people are *not* in the market for being wrong / realising their stupidity / etc

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Dio is excited about Truffle season‏ @shrinetothevine 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @nosilverv @ssica3003

      Lmao what is typically understood as sensemaking in the wider "complexity" committee is just incorrectly deciphering third order effects i.e. equally wrong in different ways.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. RIVAL VOICES‏ @nosilverv 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @shrinetothevine @ssica3003

      wait THIRD order1'1'1?!?!?! im only up to second order effects!!! what even are third order effects??!?! preach senpai!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Dio is excited about Truffle season‏ @shrinetothevine 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @nosilverv @ssica3003

      That's the point. They *think* they can do third order but can't

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. RIVAL VOICES‏ @nosilverv 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @shrinetothevine @ssica3003

      wait so you're saying third order isn't a thing and they think it is? or what?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Dio is excited about Truffle season‏ @shrinetothevine 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @nosilverv @ssica3003

      Pretty much yeah. I think they do both second and third order wrong in general. Third order is possible but with a lot of caveats. Too many variables. If you get third order right out of it is mostly luck.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Dio is excited about Truffle season‏ @shrinetothevine 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @shrinetothevine @nosilverv @ssica3003

      The right way to "sense make" is not to predict but simply to recognise the whole range of possible tail risks and hedge appropriately. Mainstream "sense makers" do not realise this and instead try to make prediction.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. RIVAL VOICES‏ @nosilverv 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @shrinetothevine @ssica3003

      who are those mainstream sense makers?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Dio is excited about Truffle season‏ @shrinetothevine 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @nosilverv @ssica3003

      Won't tag, but you can google. Dave snowden a good example. And anyone that claims to be in "futures thinking" consulting for governments

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. ᗪᗩᐯᕮ SᑎOᗯᗪᕮᑎ  🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿  🇪🇺‏ @snowded 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @shrinetothevine @nosilverv @ssica3003

      As far as I know I have always said that you can’t make predictions but you can evaluate plausibilities, identify outlier views and create anticipatory triggers. Not aware I “futures thinking” either, I create methods and tools for sense-making

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
      MetaJess‏ @ssica3003 10 Mar 2020
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      Replying to @snowded @shrinetothevine @nosilverv

      Hey Dave, hows it going? Me and my internet buds accidentally use the same two words that you do for your work but we mean it in a different way.

      1:18 PM - 10 Mar 2020
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      • Matthew Kalman Mezey
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        1. ᗪᗩᐯᕮ SᑎOᗯᗪᕮᑎ  🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿  🇪🇺‏ @snowded 10 Mar 2020
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          Replying to @ssica3003 @shrinetothevine @nosilverv

          Which words?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. MetaJess‏ @ssica3003 10 Mar 2020
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          Replying to @snowded @shrinetothevine @nosilverv

          Sense making :)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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