MetaJess

Pretty much yeah. I think they do both second and third order wrong in general. Third order is possible but with a lot of caveats. Too many variables. If you get third order right out of it is mostly luck.

The right way to "sense make" is not to predict but simply to recognise the whole range of possible tail risks and hedge appropriately. Mainstream "sense makers" do not realise this and instead try to make prediction.

who are those mainstream sense makers?

Won't tag, but you can google. Dave snowden a good example. And anyone that claims to be in "futures thinking" consulting for governments

Skim through this and prepare to roll your eyes. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/674209/futures-toolkit-edition-1.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj6tfHY54_oAhUZU30KHT2-AdEQFjAEegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw0veNWpYEZreOWGGkg3X_kM …

Sorry try this https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/674209/futures-toolkit-edition-1.pdf …

lol this shit always reminds me of the pepsi thing and it's always instant dismiss