Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
spwells's profile
Spencer Wells
Spencer Wells
Spencer Wells
Verified account
@spwells

Tweets

Spencer WellsVerified account

@spwells

scientist • author • explorer

Indonesia
Joined June 2009

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020

    OK, time to get science-y on you. The CFRs for #COVID19 are gradually coalescing into four tiers. The scariest is in Europe, at ~15-20%. The next scariest is China, the World average, and Indonesia at ~6%. Next is the SAsia/Muslim/Russia tier, at ~2-3%. Finally, there's...pic.twitter.com/CX6HINRvqJ

    3:33 AM - 14 Jun 2020
    • 5 Retweets
    • 19 Likes
    • Quanquan Gu Richard Jowsey 🤷🏻‍♀️ S. George Alexander cuore angelino Randy Caban Great Teacher Onizuka priya joseph CH
    2 replies 5 retweets 19 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020

        ...the SE Asian tier, which also includes rural Indonesia (the majority of cases/deaths here have been in metro Jakarta/Surabaya). I'm pretty sure I know why these patterns have formed...OK, I do know why they have formed, based on geography, society and demography.

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020

        BTW, Travis Country, TX, where I used to live, is currently in the Muslim/Russian tier, far above the SE Asian tier. I predict it - and the rest of the US - will settle at someplace close to the world average of ~6% by mid-August.pic.twitter.com/dvJJRTkqY7

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020

        And to put that in context, so far elsewhere the % of hospitalized/severely affected among the infected has averaged ~15-20%. If the 6% CFR reflects 6x under-testing with an assumed IFR of 1%, that means ~27k infected in Travis County at the moment, before the (moronic) protest..

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020

        ...superspreader events have even started to register in new infections. This suggests >5400 @TravisCountyTX residents needing ventilators and ICU beds, all at once, in the next couple of weeks. But I'm sure you've run these numbers yourselves, Austin... #ATX

        2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020

        But how many ICU beds are there in TX, total? 8826, spread out across a state population of 29M. Austin has a few hundred. These rednecks literally don't know what's coming for them...and unfortunately they've brought it on themselves through arrogant complacency....🙏 #RIP

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick Clarkin, PhD‏ @Patrick_Clarkin 14 Jun 2020
        Replying to @spwells

        Paul Ewald wrote a book years ago about the evo of virulence. He wrote people were wrong to think that microbes should evolve to be benign. If 🦠 can get to new hosts easily (water, insects, host mobility), it has no incentive to keep a host alive. Is that what these tiers are?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Spencer Wells‏Verified account @spwells 14 Jun 2020
        Replying to @Patrick_Clarkin

        Kind of, but it's more complicated. There are several risk pools in this pandemic, and when @razibkhan gets around to doing the analysis I've assigned him to do, we'll have a better idea. But it's all about bio/social risk pools and demographic history...

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. End of conversation

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2022 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info