...the SE Asian tier, which also includes rural Indonesia (the majority of cases/deaths here have been in metro Jakarta/Surabaya). I'm pretty sure I know why these patterns have formed...OK, I do know why they have formed, based on geography, society and demography.
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BTW, Travis Country, TX, where I used to live, is currently in the Muslim/Russian tier, far above the SE Asian tier. I predict it - and the rest of the US - will settle at someplace close to the world average of ~6% by mid-August.pic.twitter.com/dvJJRTkqY7
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And to put that in context, so far elsewhere the % of hospitalized/severely affected among the infected has averaged ~15-20%. If the 6% CFR reflects 6x under-testing with an assumed IFR of 1%, that means ~27k infected in Travis County at the moment, before the (moronic) protest..
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...superspreader events have even started to register in new infections. This suggests >5400
@TravisCountyTX residents needing ventilators and ICU beds, all at once, in the next couple of weeks. But I'm sure you've run these numbers yourselves, Austin...#ATXShow this thread -
But how many ICU beds are there in TX, total? 8826, spread out across a state population of 29M. Austin has a few hundred. These rednecks literally don't know what's coming for them...and unfortunately they've brought it on themselves through arrogant complacency....
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Paul Ewald wrote a book years ago about the evo of virulence. He wrote people were wrong to think that microbes should evolve to be benign. If
can get to new hosts easily (water, insects, host mobility), it has no incentive to keep a host alive. Is that what these tiers are? -
Kind of, but it's more complicated. There are several risk pools in this pandemic, and when
@razibkhan gets around to doing the analysis I've assigned him to do, we'll have a better idea. But it's all about bio/social risk pools and demographic history...
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