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@sourcejedi
Twitter for @sourcejedi_ben@mastodonapp.uk He/him What does it look like when an online forum attacks minorities and women? 🐦 What are we doing about it? 🐘
mastodonapp.uk/@sourcejedi_benJoined September 2015

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Important correction: because so many women with PCOS have higher levels of testosterone, the way to be allowed to bypass the testosterone test is to be one of the 30% of women who have pcos Which is even more silly as it shows how the limit is arbitrary
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Replying to @TotallyTills and @Chican3ry
Just checked on this one btw - the policy document excludes PCOS in one of the footnotes, so PCOS causing a T level above 2.5nmol\L alone wouldn't cause a women to be banned
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Terrible approach, with a seeming insinuation that - what? - Labour would try to make cannabis Class A? That would be utterly insane.
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Keir Starmer insists a Labour government will not treat recreational use of cannabis as a "low level" crime. He says "cannabis smoke creeping in from the street downstairs" is "ruining children's lives". Quite a contrast to Sadiq Khan's approach to cannabis...
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I feel people look at "ZOE Health Study" and see pandemic stats. But most pandemic stats were, like - questioned by press - regulated by ONS or UK statistics authority, etc - sharing their current methods for review by scientific peers - accountable to voters - not funded by VC
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I has a coping strategy: I don't think too many people are paying attention to ZOE COVID estimates (and communications). At this point, it can't do society-level damage.
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Unfortunately I fear that the result will be a misinformation gap, where the usual suspects can whip up hype about some new "killer variant" and scatter a few local ZOE graphs, and cooler heads won't be able to point at the variant percentages and growth rates to defuse that.
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Replying to @sourcejedi @peter_boring and 3 others
3/n. Therefore, the jump is due to a transformation applied on top of the 14-day average. @/JoePajak has also been blaming "recalibration". ZOE recently announced they would now recalibrate against ONS. So there is potential for teething problems. health-study.joinzoe.com/blog/covid-est
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The numbers above were the last two UK estimates "by publish date". Wednesday 22nd: 136,722 Thursday 23rd: 111,241 It does not tell us COVID dropped by 20% per day. It tells us ZOE removed a jump of 30% per day. Both swerves are impossible and not "real".
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What daily data would produce this average? It would need to jump up about 400% in one day (March 15). It would then have to jump *down* on the next day (March 16). Enough to keep the average from rising much. But not so much it let the average fall. And so on. Nonsense.
Daily incidence rates across nations

This ZOE graph lets us look closer at the most recent incidence rates.

The incidence rates for all nations jump up ~30% on a single day, March 15.

The data with the narrowest confidence interval - least random error - is for England.  Following the jump, the England estimate appears relatively flat.
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Me: "of course nobody will report the increase in ZOE incidence as actual news, because it's clearly a statistical artefact" INews: hold my beer inews.co.uk/news/science/c (And of course ISAGE are all over it)
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Today, 111241. My current hypothesis is that there's one doomer and one minimiser who work for ZOE, and whoever gets to the office first gets to put the numbers on the webpage that day. twitter.com/BristOliver/st…
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Full moon calls thee - Shai-hulud shall thou see; Red the night, dusky sky…
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2/2 Basically a tube with a number of external ring segments each having a flattened foot. By undulating the rings (“traveling wave bellows”), the vehicle could trundle along over any lunar terrain. Tops speed would be 5 mph. Range was to be 100 mi, 1000 lb payload.
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Replying to and
I appreciate you stopped showing incidence graphs just *before* they showed this impossible jump. For good reasons! But right now, if you only show the prevalence graph, you end up hiding the anomaly and smoothing it into a steady rise. See:
Today's incidence by age group graph, which continues to show the impossible jump on graph date March 15, and comparatively dead flat for three days afterwards.
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Replying to @sourcejedi @ProfJSDavies and 2 others
(3/4) Pajak's graph is prevalence, which shows 3 days sloping up. Spector's graph above is incidence, which shows 1 jump + two flat days. This is because ZOE calculate prevalence from incidence. An easy way to think of it is as a weighted rolling average. github.com/sourcejedi/nov
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Wait, are people still taking this "ZOE up 28% in a day" thing seriously? There's basically no epidemic curve on earth that is flattish at 95-100k then up to 130k in one day, and it's not like it's ever been the most reliable measure, so Revd. Bayes says "check your instruments".
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