Sophia Gaston

On Tuesday, a big report I've written for the brilliant @epc_eu on public opinion in the EU (across huge range of economic, social, political issues) is published. Please come to our briefing & debate in Brussels on what it means for Europe's future: https://epc.eu/en/events/100093~2e7a70 …

8. A mutually beneficial friendship. Australia's PM has been in real strife since his appalling handling of the bushfires & climate change is a real dividing line between Oz & the UK. So there's a clear benefit for Morrison in being the subject of positive global comparison.

7. A focus shift. The Govt recognises both the potential toxicity of the UK-USA trade deal debate, and the positive feeling towards the 'Anglosphere'. A shift to Australia for focus on trade & immigration diffuses public tensions & securitises Brexit voters of its 'dividends'.

6. Image-making. Australia's a prosperous, mid-sized nation, maintaining Anglosphere links & security rships via 5Eyes, while also embracing emerging economic opportunities. UK is bigger & geographically bound to Europe, but there is a not-terrifying model here for anxious Brits.

5. Common political tactics. Many of Johnson's election team came straight from Morrison's shock win in Australia, beating a radical, cosmopolitan pitch in favour of a communitarian, securitising offer. Both now grapple with challenges of governing in volatile, polarised times.

4. Immigration models. Irregular migration has been a major political issue for 20 yrs in Australia & its regular migration policy facilitates high intakes, but at a high skill level. There's a model here potentially attractive to a number of different UK voting constituencies.

3. Quick post-Brexit trade wins. The high degree of 'spiritual' alignment & Anglo regulatory standards means a UK-Australia trade deal should be (agriculture aside), relatively easy to complete, fast, and a big symbolic 'win' for both sides. See, it's all a walk in the park

2. Cultural ties. Australia's part of the Anglosphere & the Commonwealth. These are the easiest 'sunlit uplands' to conjure, in a diverse wider world presenting new challenges (see: China). Voters identify an enduring affinity & feel safer in a 'community of like-minded nations'.

1. An Old-School Rebrand. No Deal is clearly politically unacceptable, but remains a very real prospect. An 'Australia-style' deal is a rather cynical rebrand. Australia does not have an FTA with the EU, and is rather keen to do so. But that's not all.

There's been lots of talk about Brexit forcing a choice between US or EU alignment. It looks as though Govt is keen to inject a third party into the mix: Australia. So what's the rationale behind the spotlight on a nation of 25m people on the other side of the world? [Thread..]

Huawei situation is ultimately a failure of multilateralism in the West. Why did the 5 Eyes & key EU partners not work together 5-10 years ago to devise a co-funded alternative provider, to rival the cost & speed of the services of an autocratic state? And why not start now?