@slatestarcodex p(win by 1 vote) * outcome / number of voters. Did you miss the division? Your individual benefits dont sum to total if so.
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Replying to @sickofit @slatestarcodex
In other words, not dividing is conflating odds 1 vote decides with odds YOUR vote decides.
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relevant quantity is P(preferred candidate wins | i vote) - P(preferred candidate wins | i don't vote)
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which is the same as the probability that, not counting your vote, the election is tied
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that probability times the value of your preferred candidate winning is the EV of voting
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this is assuming we're calculating the value to society as a whole
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if we're calculating how much the voter personally benefits, we have to divide by the size of society
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Replying to @solipsistfever @slatestarcodex
this tweet is my objection to the math in article
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division is by # affected then, not # voters. i think ssc was talking from an altruistic pov though
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but i would agree this complicates practical import of calculation
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as carl shulman points out in comments, altruist has to compare with more effective alternatives
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