@slatestarcodex p(win by 1 vote) * outcome / number of voters. Did you miss the division? Your individual benefits dont sum to total if so.
relevant quantity is P(preferred candidate wins | i vote) - P(preferred candidate wins | i don't vote)
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which is the same as the probability that, not counting your vote, the election is tied
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that probability times the value of your preferred candidate winning is the EV of voting
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