Am I just old, or is the craze for heterojunction module factories basically a rerun of the Applied Materials Sunfab & Oerlikon Solar microcrystalline silicon module disaster, just with an extra layer. (21 companies bought factories from these two companies. 0 succeeded).
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"But Meyer Burger sells the manufacturing lines and they're a reputable company!" Yes, I have no reason to diss Meyer Burger (great diamond wire saws)! But so were Oerlikon Solar and Applied Materials.
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Also, to be fair, sometimes innovations do work and catch on really fast - like bifacial module designs and diamond wire saws, both of which I did not see coming. Progress happens, usually not in the ways you expect.
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As Mark Andreessen likes to point out, every crazy idea works, knowing when they work is a different question.
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This is the disease of age, and why start-ups are usually founded by people in their 20′s or 30′s. Remedies: 1) *Always* keep an open mind and don’t dismiss out of hand. 2) Consider *why* the earlier failure occurred. Assumptions? Context? Execution? 3) What’s different now?
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