Nathan Black

@sockcymbal

Nonlinear dynamics, markets, music. Trading volatility and tail hedging at

San Mateo, CA
nathanblack.me
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2010.
47 fotografija ili videozapisa Fotografije i videozapisi

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    12. svi 2019.

    Volatility is change. The future will be volatile. Long vol lets you benefit from market turbulence. Here's our Q1 letter to investors making the case for convex exposure to change, and robustly analyzing Bitcoin's volatility:

    11 proslijeđenih tweetova 39 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  2. 8. sij

    - Largest jolts (changes in acceleration) are side to side - Local train has 45% less volatility than express - Better to sit farther from engine

    1 reply 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  3. 8. sij

    Fun experiment: I did a brief vibration analysis riding the using an accelerometer, python, and volatility techniques from quantitative finance.

    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  4. 29. pro 2019.

    I’m consistently amazed how many ideas click from the clarity and presence a slow walk in nature brings.

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. pro 2019.

    Independent thinking is rare because there's little to no social reward for it in the short term.

    5 replies 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 55 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. pro 2019.

    Starting with axioms & previously proven theorems Various transformations are attempted To obtain new expressions Modified until —with persistence & good fortune— a sequence is discovered that leads to the goal. ➡️ Selective trial & error

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. pro 2019.

    Thinking for yourself is like writing your own software. Doable, but not that easy. And even harder if you don’t want to rely on the libraries of others.

    27 replies 160 proslijeđenih tweetova 758 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  8. 27. pro 2019.

    In information networks, there is a fundamental trade-off between throughput and stability. The more you need a system to be reliable, prioritize *stability* h/t: - Bitcoin’s distributed memory of money - Chiang’s “Exhalation” distributed memory of consciousness

    1 reply 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    14. pro 2019.

    Being optimistic is an underrated skill.

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  10. 13. pro 2019.

    Interesting and helpful reflections on decision-making optimization. Part of a healthy error correction algorithm is periodic metaheuristic checks, i.e. how sure am I that I want to be deciding the way I'm currently deciding?

    I wrote something about choosing things, it might be useful —
    1 proslijeđeni tweet 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. pro 2019.

    Going from tangentially thinking about an idea, to constantly thinking about and researching an idea unlocks compounding benefits. If your competition isn't as laser focused as you are, they aren't competition.

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  12. 10. pro 2019.

    “Uncertainty is ignorance. We hate being ignorant.” - Edgar Peters

    2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  13. 10. pro 2019.

    The Ellsberg Paradox demonstrates our tendency for ambiguity aversion. Certainty is comforting. To become friends with uncertainty, we can work on moving towards discomfort and/or decreasing our emotional association with feelings of certainty in what we know.

    1 reply 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    13. ruj 2019.

    I don't mean to butcher the purity of broad wisdom, but find this too perfect for trading wisdom: “By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” -Confucious

    1 reply 25 proslijeđenih tweetova 124 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  15. 3. pro 2019.

    Story-addiction and certainty-craving is a recipe for terrible decision making in a fundamentally turbulent environment. Beware of sellers of nice sounding narratives and belief systems that rely on predictions!

    1/ Daniel Kahneman, one of the fathers of behavior economics, said one of his favorite papers was “On the Psychology of Prediction (1973).” He claims in the paper that intuitive predictions are often unreliable because people base their predictions on how well an
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  16. 23. stu 2019.

    Plus since they all feedback on each other, strengthening one can certainty strengthen the others, enabling nonlinear growth in overall understanding.

    Five ways to understand any mathematical concept. 1) Verbal - explain in words 2) Visual - make a graph 3) Algebraic - write the equation 4) Numerical - do a numerical example 5) Computational - code a solver I find that my depth of understanding improves when I do all five.
    2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  17. 23. stu 2019.

    We typically think of A/B testing and prototyping as additive. Don’t forget to experiment with deliberate subtraction.

    2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. lis 2019.

    For my friends frustrated with their career or plagued by imposter syndrome... Here’s Jim Simons at 41, struggling with markets before becoming the top performing fund manager ever: “Sometimes I look at this and feel I’m just some guy who doesn’t really know what he’s doing.”

    12 replies 84 proslijeđena tweeta 531 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  19. 14. lis 2019.

    "Don't only practise your art, but force your way into its secrets." Ludwig van Beethoven

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  20. 26. ruj 2019.

    Ask for advice, not feedback. Feedback is associated with evaluation and judgement, whereas advice is associated with growth.

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  21. 16. ruj 2019.

    If musicians ran the world...

    5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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