The highly anticipated sessions of the future of financial #stability and monetary #policy meeting are now available for viewing. Don't miss out on Day 1 and Day 2 - watch them right here: Day 1: youtube.com/live/GS2tUlVcP Day 2:
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Mark Sobel
@sobel_mark
Former US Treasury/US rep IMF; US Chairman OMFIF; Non-Res Senior Advisor CSIS
Joined June 2018
Mark Sobel’s Tweets
Excellent panels and speakers. I am biased. But watch and judge how much so.
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Great piece by Matt.
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Wise advice from @CSIS @MPGoodman88 about how to pursue economic security: "The United States should not hunker in fear or sacrifice the sources of its prosperity at the costly altar of either protectionism or weaponization of economic policy."
csis.org/analysis/g7-gi
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Excellent and spot on by Jens, one of the best currency analysts I’ve ever known!
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A brief history of global monetary policy since 2008
(with reference to the ECB's and the Fed's slow exit from ultra-easy monetary policy & Japan's current run-away quantitative easing).
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I can understand this stuff well enough to have it explained to me after the fact, but I could never come up with these schemes. the staffers originating these novel exploitations of baselines and legislative rules are like a cross between fiscal engineers and artists
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Great recognition and well earned praise for Treasury’s fantastic and invaluable Markets Room, including its wonderful Director, Albert Lee.
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As the US rapidly approaches potential default, top officials are increasingly relying on the Markets Room, a team of 9 financial analysts at the Treasury Dept who act as an early warning system for disruption in the financial markets
Story w/@AlliemalCNN:
cnn.com/2023/05/25/pol
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Germany is in recession, has tons of fiscal space and pressing defense/climate/infrastructure needs and it’s going to slash budgetary spending? Hmmm!
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Continued great reporting from Jeff Stein.
The disgraceful debt ceiling farce goes on and on.
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New: WH floats cutting some new IRS $ from IRA in debt ceiling deal
Not expected to exceed $10B of the $80B approved - could be much less
“Fig leaf” aimed at mitigating big cuts to domestic programs of ~6-10%
(Yes, cutting IRS budget 
the deficit)
washingtonpost.com/business/2023/
the deficit)
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👍👍
It's not just the current situation that's "insane".
The debt ceiling and US fiscal non-policy, debates and processes are truly insane and mad as well, as I wrote below.👇
omfif.org/2023/05/us-emb
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This is insane that we are in such a precarious position. Anyway the data is cut, we are too close to an edge. twitter.com/ShaiAkabas/sta…
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Thanks. Great chat and great book.
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There is much more, so check out the show. Here is the transcript: (7/n) mercatus.org/macro-musings/
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What happened at the G7 Hiroshima Summit? Talks on the war in Ukraine, nuclear nonproliferation, and economic security were the most prominent, write CSIS experts.
Learn more:
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Great piece in The American Prospect. New arguments on the debt ceiling debate and why default impermissible. "Take care" reasoning seems fruitful/interesting/worthy of immediate exploration.
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creditslips.org/creditslips/20 wherein
#adamlevitin double unpacks our take in @TheProspect on why this use of #debtlimit is impermissible-but not under 14th Am. 14th Am does shield the new debt issued to honor existing promises from court challenge. See @FTAlphaville @RobinWigg
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The Treasury team working on the debt limit consists of outstanding technical experts. They are not abandoning being "apolitical". Unlike many in our political class, they understand arithmetic. Arithmetic isn't political.
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A closer look at Treasury’s key players in the debt-limit debacle and why they may not be able to maintain their “apolitical” role for much longer: politico.com/news/2023/05/2
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Great article about Dave Lebryk, a fantastic, smart and dedicated civil servant and a truly kind and gracious individual. 👍👍
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Meet the 30-year career civil servant responsible for knowing when America has run out of cash
washingtonpost.com/business/2023/
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IMF Asia Dept Director, Krishna Srivinasan, discusses 👇the Asian econ outlook, China's growth model & RMB, Japan/YCC/exit, US mon pol spillovers, fragmentation. (35 minutes). I/OMFIF honored to host Krishna.
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Huge thanks to the "G" global governance team at the University of Toronto for including my piece (below) in its excellent G7 Hiroshima Summit project!
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The @G7’s power lies in its united economic diplomacy and shared dilemmas. In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a more assertive China, putting this cohesiveness into action is more critical than ever
globalgovernanceproject.org/the-power-of-c @sobel_mark #G7
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If you're an ECB inflation hawk and think there's lots of demand-led inflation, you must also believe Euro zone economies are running hot, i.e. GDP > potential. That's hard to believe, given how depressed GDP levels in many places are. There can't be much demand-led inflation...
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This is absolutely right and American politicians should take note.
The rest of the world is turned off, distrustful and queasy over American dysfunction.
Confidence in US economic management is being enormously eroded.
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The debt limit fight is bad for dollar supremacy
A @BW cover story on the self-sabotage of American leaders to American prestige
w/@endacurran
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
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Great piece.
But Wall Street should talk to its Republican brethren, not message Ds. As I note below, the Rs are historically the reckless fiscal party, now blackmailing the US with the absurd disgraceful logic that default=fiscal rectitude. MADNESS!!
omfif.org/2023/05/us-emb
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Wall Street has a message to the Biden administration and Congress: Get the debt-ceiling deal done — now bloomberg.com/news/articles/ via @bpolitics
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German experts, incl DIW, what should one make of IMF’s recommendation for a moderate fiscal tightening in 2023 for a country perhaps now in recession with massive fiscal space and huge climate/military spending needs & flagging export led growth model?
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Wally is spot on!!
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Default would be devastating to our economy and to our economic standing around the globe. If Congress doesn't act, it would put our economy into recession and undo the progress we’ve made to add millions of jobs and strengthen our economy.
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On Thursday, May 18, 15:00 London/10:00 am EDT, Krishna Srivinasin, the IMF’s Asia Dept Director, is joining me for a discussion on the Asian economic outlook. I’m honored and delighted to have Krishna join OMFIF/me; looking forward to it.
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The Univ of Toronto produced this wonderful G7 volume on Japan: The Hiroshima Summit. This volume is filled with wonderful contributions from G7 Leaders and eminent individuals. I was greatly honored to be asked to contribute as well. Thanks to UoT!
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Alas, I couldn’t restrain myself from writing about the debt ceiling and the mess that the US calls “fiscal policy”.
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Outstanding thread from Michael Pettis.
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A scholar at the Global China Initiative says that the developing world can use the example of China's AMC's to resolve its bad debt with "market-based" solutions.
I think there is a lot of confusion about how that actually happened.
bu.edu/gdp/2023/04/11
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Absolutely correct. And a default would weaken global confidence in the US dollar, diminish demand for US assets and put upward pressure on US interest rates. That would be a dumb self-inflicted wound.
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Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines says China and Russia would likely take advantage of a U.S. debt default to portray the U.S. as a dysfunctional, chaotic and unstable nation. nbcnews.to/3LxrgTf
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It's horrid enough that this dreadful program, aimed simply at refinancing Arg exposure to IMF, is stomaching 100% inflation & countless exchange rates.
But condoning an acceleration of disbursements would be the ultimate disgrace.
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SCOOP: The Biden administration would support speeding up disbursements from Argentina’s $44 billion program with the IMF, if the nation’s authorities can successfully negotiate a new schedule, according to US officials familiar with the matter.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
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Three cheers for Amar!
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Replying to @DavidBeckworth
With enormous and profound respect for Brian, this has been something that a lot of people who care about the Treasury market have been calling for for quite a while...thanks to @sobel_mark for letting me make the argument:
omfif.org/2021/12/fortif
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Congratulations to Christoph and David! Very important and timely work.
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The Africa Debt Database with @davidmihalyi is finally out! A new, free ressource for all. We cover 7000 external sovereign loans and bonds by African governments, 2000-2020. A key insight: Chinese & private debts charge higher interest 
Full access: ifw-kiel.de/africadebtShow this thread
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(3) Why do a complicated deal? FDIC is providing a big loan guarantee, JPM is paying FDIC $11bn, and FDIC is supplying JPM with $50bn in below-market funding. Seems like a simpler deal would have been more transparent. I'll be interested to learn why it played out this way. (End)
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My FOMC preview, for those who missed it earlier.
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Next week's FOMC meeting could be a relatively quiet affair, but the calm won't last. My thoughts on the upcoming FOMC.
Famous last words?
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Is it too simple to speak of EMs hit by global fin cycle (eg Fed policy)? Is one talking about Argentina/Pakistan/Turkey/Sri Lanka? Is China included? Is Latam/Mex impacted like Asian EM?
EMs can't simply be lumped together as one. Much more going on than a global fin cycle.
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Wonderful thread from Abe!
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Against this backdrop, the requirements are: bold domestic economic reforms and much increased support from the international community (as much of it as possible on concessional terms) ... 5/n
Much more here: bit.ly/3GAACMA
@IMFNews @IMFAfrica #IMFAfrica
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👍👍👍
But why did it take 2+ years for this proposal when Yellen, Bernanke, Lew & Geithner identified 2019 rule as a problem at the time?
US GDP $26 trillion. Per internet, BR AUM >$10 trn; Fidelity $10; Vanguard>$8. Even if different than banks, any doubt they're systemic?
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Today, the FSOC took action and issued proposals to revise existing guidance on nonbanks designations and release a new financial stability framework. These efforts will strengthen US financial stability and enhance transparency into the Council’s important work.
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Totally agree with Michael on Yellen's speech below and the point that Treasury should be engaging on econ/fin with the Chinese authorities and that it's mutually beneficial -- whether US/Ch agree or not -- for them to do so.
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Good speech by Sec. Yellen. Yes, it stressed national security concerns, which is to be expected in this political environment. But it made a strong case for why engagement benefits both countries, a message intended for Beijing but also the DC crowd. twitter.com/ChadBown/statu…
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China is an economic powerhouse in Asia. It's one thing to warn about China. But what is the White House or Treasury offering Asian countries on the economic front to curb China's pull?
IPEF? 🤣🤣
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Janet Yellen to warn China against ‘unfair’ economic practices on.ft.com/3KReSx9
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Outstanding job by Matt!
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ICYMI, the House W&M Subcommittee on Trade held its first hearing on 4/18, at which I argued for the economic and strategic benefits of trade and trade agreements @CSIS_Econ youtube.com/watch?v=fxH1k8
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Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
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A couple points regarding the provocative and interesting note referenced here:
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ft.com/content/72c27c
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The statement is fine.
But the WH should really stick with the Clinton/Bush/Obama playbook and leave talking about the dollar to the Secretary of Treasury -- who in turn should say as little as possible.
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Everybody's talking about the dollar:
Via @PressSec:
"We're always monitoring development in the space and ensure we maintain the centrality of the dollar... that includes a credible and long standing commitment to transparency and sound governance, or rule of law..."
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