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slightlylate's profile
Alex Russell
Alex Russell
Alex Russell
@slightlylate

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Alex Russell

@slightlylate

Chrome Project 🐡 & Web Standards TL; Blink API OWNER Named PWAs w/ @phae; probably making her ☕ DMs open. Tweets my own; press@google.com for official comms.

San Francisco, The Internet
infrequently.org
Joined December 2010

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    1. Jeremiah Grossman‏Verified account @jeremiahg Apr 17
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      @ErrataRob Money printing and inflation led to Zimbabwe needing super large bank note denomintion for utility. The U.S. is similarly printing a lot of money, and arguably we already needed notes large $100 to be useful, but there is systemic resistance. Where does this lead?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Robᵉʳᵗ Graham 😷‏ @ErrataRob Apr 17
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      Replying to @jeremiahg

      Unknown territory. The seeds of the next financial crisis are being planted now in our response to the current financial crisis. In hindsight, it'll be obvious in the future what mistakes we are making now.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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      Replying to @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

      All of this story ignores the role of the central bank to retract money supply via banks. Nominal extension !== currency in circulation, ergo not inflation per sae.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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      Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

      Remember all the (absolutely incorrect) "but inflation!!?!!" takes post great recession? Same deal.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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      Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

      Further, Zimbabwe was not issuing a reserve currency. The rules are different in that situation. Easy tell: tbill coupon rate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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      Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

      The essential difference here is (the perception of) prudence. Zimbabwe got itself into trouble by doubling down on policy that had the (predicted and) predictable effect of destroying economic output. Diametrically opposed to situation where you're issuing to *support* output.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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      Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

      We can disagree about the likelihood of prudent us govt policy in a recovery -- R behavior '09-now is *not* inspiring; see sequester, debt default, etc. -- but market signals that it trusts policy will be prudent...which is what you need to make expansion low-cost in short run.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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      Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

      This is a leveraged bet: the govt is saying "we think we can outrun the cost of borrowing w/ growth". The terms of 10 and 30 year borrowing suggest participants (including foreign govts) agree this is prudent.

      11:02 AM - 17 Apr 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Jeremiah Grossman
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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          Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

          https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate … https://ycharts.com/indicators/30_year_treasury_rate …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Alex Russell‏ @slightlylate Apr 17
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          Replying to @slightlylate @ErrataRob @jeremiahg

          So, could Fed inflate another bubble? Won't be the first time. Could Congress continue to mess up recoveries by not challenging rate setters to overshoot (not just undershoot) targets? Sure. Could Republicans continue fiscal-performance-art antics? They surely will.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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