I'm no expert, but this graph makes me worried.
#nCoV
https://ncov.r6.no/ pic.twitter.com/yFpJV2p6Ej
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I'm no expert, but this graph makes me worried.
#nCoV
https://ncov.r6.no/ pic.twitter.com/yFpJV2p6Ej
Compare it to the seasonal flu. Corona virus is an over reaction. You also need to look at what age ranges are affected.
But we’re ignoring the rate of spread and the death rate? I don’t understand how those numbers “hold”.
As the article states, the death rate is 2% for those who are identified with having the virus. The actual infection rate is likely much higher, in orders of magnitude. So actual death rate is probably much lower and affects only certain people. It’s unknown.
We know the lower bound of absolute deaths though, and the rate of increase of those deaths, and that number on the lower bound is holding at exponential growth.
This still assumes that the number is cases is known, which it is not. The only known cases are the ones that tested positive. There could be over a million+ people infected in China for all we know.
If there's an optimistic note (and I struggle to find one), it's that the start date is likely earlier than CN accounts would suggest.
So there may also be significant numbers of uncounted deaths, because people who died also may not be tested for the virus. However, I think a big cause for optimism is that most people in the affected areas have not (or only barely) been out of their apartments for 2 weeks.
It sounds like a big portion of the recently infected are medical workers.
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