but the premise of their prediction, that bitcoin would get its value from replacing a decent sized fiat currency, turned out to have been incorrect.
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That's definitely been a surprise. I didn't expect Bitcoin to do as well as it has simply s a store of value/speculative instrument. In part because I never expected Bitcoin development to stagnate as badly as it has.
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Lots of people predicted lots of things. One of them is bound to be right.
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Certainly. No one is saying you should see me as a prophet because I was right once in 2011 about Bitcoin. You should see me as a prophet because of the thousands of 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 times I've been right since ~2008 about everything: https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets … https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern :)
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I'd say coincidence, but then nothing is ever a coincidence.
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So
@gwern is the richest person in the world now? -
If you think about it, due to capitalism and technological progress, aren't we 𝘢𝘭𝘭 equivalent to the richest person in the world as recently as a century ago? David Rockefeller couldn't tweet dank lolcat memes for any amount of money.
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Did he end up owning any?
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Yes. But interesting to reread with the benefit of hindsight. Liquidity constraints were a serious problem for me, which is why I am not now independently wealthy... I wonder what I would've concluded using Kelly back then?
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To be less coy, I am not rich but it would be churlish to complain. If any of my readers have bet much more bigly on Bitcoin & win - all I ask is to live in a corner of their good fortune, to spread widely the advantages of Science, and pray for their long life & prosperity.
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"between 0 and 0.1%" - in other words, "P >= 99.9% Bitcoin won't exceed $10k" - that's a terrible Brier score (1.999996 or so)
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"I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun 𝘺𝘰𝘶." How does my log-loss on that prediction compare to the rest of the world's?
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Well I guess with a price of ~$1 most market participants weren't assigning a much more than 0.01 chance, although frictions and loss aversion could also be contributing. I don't have a good idea how to estimate the miners' beliefs though.
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If I read that right, that was under the assumption that it replaced a significant amount of fiat currency. How much is it actually used as a means of exchange instead of a speculation commodity?
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Right for the wrong reasons in other words.
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Yes. But you should be suspicious of that argument for the same reason you should be suspicious of the hedgehog's "I was wrong, but for the right reasons!" Ultimately, the predictions are right or wrong regardless of the verbalized reasons. Reality is disjunctive, not conjunctive
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If your prediction is right but your verbal reasoning is wrong, it means that either your prediction was based on something else or it was right by luck. Either way it's worth noting if you want to make similar predictions in the future.
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I read him as saying there is a 0 to 0.1% chance of that happening.
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