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slatestarcodex's profile
Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander
@slatestarcodex

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Scott Alexander

@slatestarcodex

I have a place where I say complicated things about philosophy and science. That place is my blog. This is where I make terrible puns.

slatestarcodex.com
Joined June 2013

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    Scott Alexander‏ @slatestarcodex 21 Dec 2017

    In February 2011, when bitcoins were worth $0.91, @gwern predicted on Less Wrong that they could have a value of "upwards of $10,000".http://lesswrong.com/lw/4cs/making_money_with_bitcoin/3ljd …

    8:33 PM - 21 Dec 2017
    • 33 Retweets
    • 165 Likes
    • deborahweisman Daniel Houck Dan Cohen ejlflop Judah Gabriel Roger mori🎰@semi-hiatus Teddy Kim hikikomorphism🏝🛰️
    9 replies 33 retweets 165 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael T Spooky  🎃‏ @mtsw 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        but the premise of their prediction, that bitcoin would get its value from replacing a decent sized fiat currency, turned out to have been incorrect.

        1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes
      3. gwern‏ @gwern 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @mtsw @slatestarcodex

        That's definitely been a surprise. I didn't expect Bitcoin to do as well as it has simply s a store of value/speculative instrument. In part because I never expected Bitcoin development to stagnate as badly as it has.

        3 replies 4 retweets 28 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. HC‏ @HahTse 22 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        Lots of people predicted lots of things. One of them is bound to be right.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. gwern‏ @gwern 22 Dec 2017
        Replying to @HahTse @slatestarcodex

        Certainly. No one is saying you should see me as a prophet because I was right once in 2011 about Bitcoin. You should see me as a prophet because of the thousands of 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 times I've been right since ~2008 about everything: https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets … https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern  :)

        1 reply 3 retweets 32 likes
      4. HC‏ @HahTse 22 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gwern @slatestarcodex

        I'd say coincidence, but then nothing is ever a coincidence.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Movitz McHill‏ @MovitzHill 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        So @gwern is the richest person in the world now?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. gwern‏ @gwern 22 Dec 2017
        Replying to @MovitzHill @slatestarcodex

        If you think about it, due to capitalism and technological progress, aren't we 𝘢𝘭𝘭 equivalent to the richest person in the world as recently as a century ago? David Rockefeller couldn't tweet dank lolcat memes for any amount of money.

        0 replies 4 retweets 13 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Dan Tobias‏ @dantobias 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        Did he end up owning any?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. gwern‏ @gwern 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @dantobias @slatestarcodex

        Yes. But interesting to reread with the benefit of hindsight. Liquidity constraints were a serious problem for me, which is why I am not now independently wealthy... I wonder what I would've concluded using Kelly back then?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. gwern‏ @gwern 22 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gwern @dantobias @slatestarcodex

        To be less coy, I am not rich but it would be churlish to complain. If any of my readers have bet much more bigly on Bitcoin & win - all I ask is to live in a corner of their good fortune, to spread widely the advantages of Science, and pray for their long life & prosperity.

        0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. darth_vasya‏ @darth_vasya 23 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        "between 0 and 0.1%" - in other words, "P >= 99.9% Bitcoin won't exceed $10k" - that's a terrible Brier score (1.999996 or so)

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. gwern‏ @gwern 23 Dec 2017
        Replying to @darth_vasya @slatestarcodex

        "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun 𝘺𝘰𝘶." How does my log-loss on that prediction compare to the rest of the world's?

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. darth_vasya‏ @darth_vasya 23 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gwern @slatestarcodex

        Well I guess with a price of ~$1 most market participants weren't assigning a much more than 0.01 chance, although frictions and loss aversion could also be contributing. I don't have a good idea how to estimate the miners' beliefs though.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Daniel Houck‏ @daniel_houck 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        If I read that right, that was under the assumption that it replaced a significant amount of fiat currency. How much is it actually used as a means of exchange instead of a speculation commodity?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Lars L‏ @supra_dig 24 Dec 2017
        Replying to @daniel_houck @slatestarcodex @gwern

        Right for the wrong reasons in other words.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. gwern‏ @gwern 24 Dec 2017
        Replying to @supra_dig @daniel_houck @slatestarcodex

        Yes. But you should be suspicious of that argument for the same reason you should be suspicious of the hedgehog's "I was wrong, but for the right reasons!" Ultimately, the predictions are right or wrong regardless of the verbalized reasons. Reality is disjunctive, not conjunctive

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Daniel Houck‏ @daniel_houck 24 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gwern @supra_dig @slatestarcodex

        If your prediction is right but your verbal reasoning is wrong, it means that either your prediction was based on something else or it was right by luck. Either way it's worth noting if you want to make similar predictions in the future.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Devil Anse‏ @DialDial95 21 Dec 2017
        Replying to @slatestarcodex @gwern

        I read him as saying there is a 0 to 0.1% chance of that happening.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. 1 more reply

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