but the premise of their prediction, that bitcoin would get its value from replacing a decent sized fiat currency, turned out to have been incorrect.
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That's definitely been a surprise. I didn't expect Bitcoin to do as well as it has simply s a store of value/speculative instrument. In part because I never expected Bitcoin development to stagnate as badly as it has.
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Lots of people predicted lots of things. One of them is bound to be right.
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Certainly. No one is saying you should see me as a prophet because I was right once in 2011 about Bitcoin. You should see me as a prophet because of the thousands of 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 times I've been right since ~2008 about everything: https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets … https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern :)
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"between 0 and 0.1%" - in other words, "P >= 99.9% Bitcoin won't exceed $10k" - that's a terrible Brier score (1.999996 or so)
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"I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun 𝘺𝘰𝘶." How does my log-loss on that prediction compare to the rest of the world's?
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If I read that right, that was under the assumption that it replaced a significant amount of fiat currency. How much is it actually used as a means of exchange instead of a speculation commodity?
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Right for the wrong reasons in other words.
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