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Although there has definitely been a lot of hype about AI, a lot of the "natural language solved by next summer" style stories are urban legends. See https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/what-should-we-learn-past-ai-forecasts … .
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My impression from talking to AI researchers is people generally underestimated pace of AI progress over past 5-10 years. EG just before AlphaGo, people predicted would be decades before AIs could beat people at Go. Some aspects of vision/speech recognition equally impressive.
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I agree can't make superintelligence today, requires new insights. But to stick to your metaphor, only 40 years between 20 mph Model T and first Mach 1 flight. Good forecaster in 1910 wouldn't have said "There's no way to reach Mach 1 now, so probably we never will".
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I'd be astounded if we never got AGI; idea that the brain can't be duplicated by technology sounds too supernatural. Only ? is whether in 40 years or 400. Most experts predict closer to 40.
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Not saying they're definitely right, but seems crazy to stake everything on assumption that they're definitely wrong without investigating.
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