Already covered that last time you discussed this on SSC http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/?p=5873
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Interesting, but what do you think of specific study cited?
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"i hope Scott Alexander writes a blog post about this"
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unfortunately I have no *helpful* thoughts about it
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most detailed attempt to review evidence for this that I know of says nopehttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10519-015-9745-3 …
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(caveats in article I just tl;dr it)
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This sounds plausible to me (again, not a medical expert) and is, if true, is disastrous for inferring the strength… 3/
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…of genetic effects. A cheesy causal diagram: without the chorionicity effects, we're assuming something like G -> O <- E 4/
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Where G is 'genetic effects', O is whatever outcome we're trying to study (e.g. schizophrenia) & E is 'environment' 5/
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And, of course, the whole point of twin studies is that we think we're holding G constant, and seeing what happens w/ E 6/
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At this coarse of a level of modeling, there's no possible adjustment. Can start adjust properly, again if we know… 7/
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…What kinds of factors prenatal infections can effect. But I'm guessing that's a lot of factors. Difficult problem. 8/8
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…placenta are going to share infections, which plausibly causes them both to develop the same future conditions. 2/
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If I'm reading this right (I'm really out of my depth, medical-wise) the proposed mechanism is that twins that share a… 1/
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"Confounding? Sounds like a job for Ilya Shpitser!" was my first thought.
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