If disagree with last post, don't send me "Look, guy related to Trump made a suspicious comment!", challenge my predictions or make your own
Agree with 1, 2a, 6, but all true of recent past admins. Think 2b is fault of ppl crying wolf. Disagree 3, 4. Unsure 5.
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4 requires time parameter to be testable. 5 yrs from appointment&80% I would stand by strongly. Recently researched topic.
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3 we may have a straight-up testable disagreement.
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Hi
@slatestarcodex. I know you got somewhat tired of dealing with this post--but have you given thought to your predictions?pic.twitter.com/8u79hQ4Q6k
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I believe your 70% confidence cabinet prediction has failed. Hate crimes I think you're in danger on, but too early to know
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Remainder of yours seem pretty low hanging fruit, with questionable causal link to Trump's decision-making.
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Feeling pretty good about mine.
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Cabinet is exactly 20% if not counting VP, but I admit that's sketchy so fine.
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Fair point. Acosta replacing Puzder part of the story too.
End of conversation
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Regarding 6, Karl Rove (!!!) was committed to expanding diversity of that coalition, and had some debatable success.
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Regarding 1, I think we could refine it in a way that would be distinct from recent practice, but wld require thought
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2b, I disagree with your causal analysis.
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I'll give another predict. W/in 60 days of office, DoJ will withdraw position in 1 civil rts case (90%), 3(70%), 5(50%).
End of conversation
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