.@slatestarcodex At what point will you reject null & decide no, things are not OK with this, my terrified fans & the historians are right?
But my point was that of the chance of those predictions being violated is by chance.
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@slatestarcodex Cool story. I still offer a bet whose terms, if you believe in your calibration, *still favor you*. -
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@slatestarcodex I don't think I'm saying anything bold - if you trust your calibration & like free money on EV, you should take the bet. - 1 more reply
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