.@slatestarcodex At what point will you reject null & decide no, things are not OK with this, my terrified fans & the historians are right?
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@slatestarcodex Then you should not have made predictions so vague as to be meaningless and falsified by an agreeable case of null hyp. -
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@slatestarcodex So: kindly bet, or revise/recant, or rightfully lose another little chunk of your audiences credence in you. -
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@slatestarcodex You are not being narrow enough. This is not a feature, nor a sign of good calibration.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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@slatestarcodex Also: which ones do you believe were violated? I can just remove those from consideration. I shouldn't. I will. -
But my point was that of the chance of those predictions being violated is by chance.
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@slatestarcodex Cool story. I still offer a bet whose terms, if you believe in your calibration, *still favor you*. -
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@slatestarcodex I don't think I'm saying anything bold - if you trust your calibration & like free money on EV, you should take the bet. -
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@slatestarcodex Gods, I'm even *significantly favoring you here*, according to your own estimation.
End of conversation
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