@slatestarcodex I will put down $50 at 2:3 odds that trump's cabiniet will be 20% minority (I think the probability is around 55%)
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Replying to @Edmund_B_Nelson @slatestarcodex
For clarity I'm arguing the number of minority's in trump's cabinet will be LESS than 20% you will pay $75 if it happens
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Replying to @Edmund_B_Nelson
Going to avoid due to transaction costs of too many bets too close to my probability. Make it even odds & you have deal.
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Replying to @slatestarcodex
but due to kelly critereon i have to go down to $40
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Replying to @Edmund_B_Nelson
Sure. I get $40 if first Cabinet is 20% or more ethnic+LGBT minority, you get $40 if it's less?
8:22 PM - 16 Nov 2016
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