@slatestarcodex I will put down $50 at 2:3 odds that trump's cabiniet will be 20% minority (I think the probability is around 55%)
Going to avoid due to transaction costs of too many bets too close to my probability. Make it even odds & you have deal.
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Sure Should I ask David Friedman to intermediate? I went to the meetup at his house so he's a mutual person.
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Just remind me if you end up being right & give me your paypal address. I miss things on Twitter so use email.
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but due to kelly critereon i have to go down to $40
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Sure. I get $40 if first Cabinet is 20% or more ethnic+LGBT minority, you get $40 if it's less?
End of conversation
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