In sum: If the vote goes 50-50, you should be suspicious of your belief that Hillary - Trump ~= $300 billion. You're just another mark. 8/8
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Let's be clear about which problem we're addressing. I have a two-pronged critique of the Nate Silver doctrine:
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1) As framed, it fails bc you should have very low confidence in your beliefs about global welfare *if a vote is 50-50*.
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seems reasonable that confidence should plummet as you scale up
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