In sum: If the vote goes 50-50, you should be suspicious of your belief that Hillary - Trump ~= $300 billion. You're just another mark. 8/8
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Let's be clear about which problem we're addressing. I have a two-pronged critique of the Nate Silver doctrine:
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1) As framed, it fails bc you should have very low confidence in your beliefs about global welfare *if a vote is 50-50*.
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2) If you punt to a calculation on local welfare, you don't get a $300B denominator to offset 1/60M odds.
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You might know, with some reliability, that Hillary's worth $1M to you personally. Expected value still < 2 cents.
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This is all an entirely separate matter from my claim that voting is itself immoral, which I am not pretending to justify.
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https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/788119722340548608 … We're not arguing about whether to vote *on whether to vote*. You're the guy who hates meta, yeah?
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https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/788119483550461954 … The Hayekian knowledge argument is astronomically weaker than the efficient market hypothesis.
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In this context, Hayek says "you don't know anything, & presuming to direct a society from such ignorance is catastrophic."
End of conversation
New conversation -
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seems reasonable that confidence should plummet as you scale up
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