Checked in on SlateStarCodex's most confident prediction for 2018 and uh ohpic.twitter.com/7iawBvVl3d
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I know, meant this as anti-bitcoin rather than a dunk on you but the context wasn't there and I have earned the correction
95% is closer to %100 than %89 and 0.95^9 gets you %63. This suggests that getting 100% of the 95% predictions should have been more likely than not. E.g. all 9 predictions should be true, but ~%40 chance 1 or more was false.
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