I linked orbits, id'ed unknown objects with known ones; you may say that I have some experience despite not being a professional astronomer.
The situation with #gb00234 is curious & was nicely described by Bill Gray at https://yhoo.it/2ka4ok4 & clearly echoes my feelings. 2/10
-
-
Prikaži ovu nit
-
I often call me a fan of Ockham's razor to decide what would be the most likely scenario. So, let's look at our situation here and see what will be the outcome. 3/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
Case 1: The unrestricted large eccentricity is real. This seems very unlikely based on the fact that the first interstellar object was seen just 2 yr ago. The absolute magnitude of the object is quite high which means it is not very small. This also seems quite unlikely. 4/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
Case 2: The data are inconsistent. While this is especially true for diffuse comets, from experience one can say that nowadays amateurs routinely do astrometry with sub-arcsecond accuracy. 5/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
The images I have seen for this object show a well condensed coma which should lead to a good centroid & thus a reasonable accuracy. Using selected obs does not change the hyperbolic solution, more obs still do not tend to lower the eccentricity considerably. 6/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
When fixing e=1 the residuals go up, twice the unrestricted value. It would be very strange why the observations would fit up so nicely to represent a perfectly hyperbolic orbit. So, also here - It is very unlikely that the data are very inconsistent. 7/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
Case 3: Non-gravitational forces. One can use non-gravs & e=1 to do a solution. The residuals are not as good as with the unrestricted orbit but the nongrav's itself are very high and thus also very unlikely. Maybe the object has an engine? (This is a joke! - just in case) 8/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
Okay, three cases, all with unlikely explanations. Which one do you want to choose? In the end we will have to wait. The object is bright enough, we know where it is, we will not lose it. In a few weeks time we should be able to pin down the eccentricity much better. 9/10
Prikaži ovu nit -
Currently, Ockham's razor for me favors case 1. Would I bet money on it? No. 10/10
Prikaži ovu nit
Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
-
-
Tweet je nedostupan.
-
But the more data there are, even more from more different observatories, the less likely the explanation is that.
- Još 5 drugih odgovora
-
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.