I'm reasonably confident that Ian's "reasonable confidence" means roughly 60-80%, which is less vague than a lot of vague-verbiage forecasts. The clearer you make your forecasts, the easier it is to spot mistakes & become better calibratedhttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1222501147765809154 …
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
@PredictIt currently has it at 71%, so at least in the betting market this is the conventional wisdom.
07:42 - 29. sij 2020.
0 replies
0 proslijeđenih tweetova
1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.