It is one of 3-4 mitigations for the preventable problem paradox. It is also the most practicable one. You can literally implement this on Monday if you want.
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That’s what I saw repeatedly when we employed the standard script. So, I began looking for ways to change that.
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I wanted the team to A. be spotting major problems, and B. surface those problems up to other team members *throughout the lifecycle of the project*, not just at that one pre-mortem meeting.
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What was missing, I realized, was an evocative, convenient lexicon that allowed people to talk about these things in a psychologically safe manner. Related: I learned quite late in my career the tremendous benefits of giving your team a context-specific lexicon. Don’t be me.
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The way I like to run pre-mortems now is to ask them to list out their concerns about the project in 3 different categories:
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Why are you not worried about a Paper Tiger (even though others might be)? Usually because you’re responsible for the said area and have strong conviction that the ostensible Tiger is fully under control. You’ve got it!
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An Elephant might not be a threat per se, but it’s the thing you’re worried no one is talking about. It’s the “elephant in the room”.
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So, with this lexicon, here’s how I recommend running a pre-mortem meeting:
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During the context setting part, I introduce the pre-mortem concept (it’s always *someone’s* first pre-mortem) and ask everyone on the team to come up with: 2 Tigers (at least), and any Paper Tigers and Elephants they can think of.
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There is absolutely no talking during this time. Quiet time! It’s amazing how long & productive a 10 minute stretch of silence can be in a meeting, when no one is talking.
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After that, there’s another 10 minutes of Quiet time. During this time, people read everyone else’s Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants. And they get to +1 others’ Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants. Each person can give up to five +1s. So you need to be quite selective.pic.twitter.com/k2oSHFr9hy
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Btw, this is all being done in a shared Google doc or a Dropbox Paper doc. One advantage of Paper being that you can easily see who wrote what.
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And then, Quiet time is over. You go around the room, and people share their observations (e.g. what Tiger resonated the most, what they found surprising, etc.)
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And, as the facilitator, you wrap the meeting up by summarizing the top themes that have emerged from the pre-mortem and sharing what people can expect next.pic.twitter.com/V2KSmkKBCq
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So, what’s next? It’s the most important part of the entire process. The pre-mortem action plan. As the facilitator, you prioritize the top N Tigers / Elephants that emerged from the pre-mortem exercise.pic.twitter.com/qB8JdjJkmX
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You create a document that summarizes the action plan and share it with the team for commentary. Here’s a hypothetical example:pic.twitter.com/9japrYgTaK
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Note that your goal isn’t to list *every possible problem* in the action plan. You must focus on the major problems (i.e. the deadliest Tigers), and be fine with living with the minor ones.
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You cannot (and should not) fix all problems because you don’t want progress to grind to a halt. But more importantly, I’ll observe that solving one problem often creates a different problem.
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So you’ve got to have clarity on which problems you’re willing to live with and which ones you can’t live with. (this is perhaps applicable outside of one's work life too)
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Also note that it’s important to list the verbatim Tigers and Elephants (as in column 2), since it reassures team members that their *direct input* was useful. Every item must have a single Directly Responsible Individual (DRI). (they can of course delegate, as appropriate)pic.twitter.com/9SIqvVGDjw
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And the last column lists the proposed mitigating actions, in priority order, that will *reduce the chances* of the problem occurring, OR will *limit its negative impact* if it does occur.pic.twitter.com/6re4gZluix
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Once you’ve reviewed the action plan with the team, make sure that you track progress against the action plan during the rest of the life of the project.
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You can do it by merging the action plan with the overall project plan, so it becomes an integral part of “how we do things around here” vs. a one-off effort. So that’s pretty much it.
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How do these pre-mortems help the team? Besides the obvious benefit of reducing the chances of major mistakes, I love it when team members wholly adopt the “Tiger", "Paper Tiger", "Elephant” metaphors.
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It’s quite typical that, N days after the pre-mortem meeting, team members will say in a meeting/on Slack/email: “I recently thought of a Tiger that’s been worrying me since” “Remember, that’s the Elephant that Bob pointed out earlier. We still need to do work there.”, etc.
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Saying in a meeting “I’d like to talk about a Tiger” is lower pressure on the individual than dealing with the fear (rational or not) of coming across as “pessimistic” or a “naysayer” when expressing their concerns in normal English. These metaphors can be quite powerful!
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