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1/ A thread on the 2020 presidential election. Why now is the absolutely most important time to talk about it. Why Trump is very formidable. What it would take in a candidate to beat him. Who could beat him easily.https://theintercept.com/2018/01/14/2020-election-oprah-trump-michelle-obama-bernie-sanders-joe-biden/ …
2. Anyone telling you that now is not the time to TALK about the 2020 presidential election does not understand how presidential primaries and elections work. Yes, we must mainly focus on 2018 mid-term elections. Even important 2019 races. Now is the time to TALK about 2020.
3. The 2020 presidential race will officially begin in 2019. That's next year. Potential candidates are already forming teams, making faux campaign trips, honing their messages, and testing the waters. It's important that we be a part of those conversations.
4. The 2016 Democratic primary was a worst case scenario for the Democratic Party. This is not a critique of Hillary, but healthy primaries have a competitive cast of 8-10 leading political leaders Most superdelegates committed to Hillary before the first vote was cast. Bad idea
5. The 2008 primary was a healthy Democratic primary. A cast of competitive all-stars w/ upstarts like Obama, veterans like Biden, and establishment picks like Hillary. It was super competitive. Debates were strong. It was fierce. That should be the model for how it's done.
6. Three different people have now told me that Elizabeth Warren wanted to run in 2016, but that she was discouraged because it was "not her time." It was Warren's time, actually. She should've run. She might not have won, but she would've been great for the process.
7. Let me preface everything that I am about to say with this: a. I am not endorsing the people I am about to suggest. b. I am not proud that our political process has been hijacked by a bigoted billionaire celebrity. c. I loathe Trump, but we must not be blinded by hate.
8. Donald Trump is formidable. People underestimate him at their own peril. He is the Godzilla of political opponents. Traditional rules and strategies and tactics simply do not work against him. He lies. He's unethical. He changes positions on the fly.
9. NOTHING makes Trump more formidable than his social media following. He wields his 46.5 million Twitter followers, 23 million Facebook followers, and 8.2 million Instagram followers to not just dominate and shape every single news cycle, but to mock and ridicule his opponents
10. I want to give you FOUR factors that I think Trump's political opponent must have. Without these four factors, an opponent could still win, but I think they will struggle more than most people want to admit. I'll break each factor down.
11. The Democratic candidate in 2020 MUST have an enormous social media following. Trump had more followers than every . Republican & Democratic candidate COMBINED. He uses that following to then dominate the news cycle 7 days a week.
12. Barack Obama is literally the only leader in America with more social media followers than Trump. He has twice as many, by the way. He would mop the floor with Trump. He would've stomped him in 2012 and would squash him right now.
13. It is my very, very strong belief that without an enormous social media following, Trump's 2020 political opponent will struggle to build momentum against him. The thing is, very few people in America already have a huge social media following.
14. The 1st factor a Democratic candidate will need is a huge social media following. The 2nd factor that a candidate MUST have is a dedicated, excited core base of supporters that already exists.
15. Here's what I am looking for? Can you pack a stadium full of people today? Without Beyonce or Bruce Springsteen opening up for you. Because it is my belief that if you are not already that popular RIGHT NOW, you can't beat Trump. Period.
16. The 1st factor a candidate needs to defeat Trump is a huge social media following. The 2nd is the ability to pack a stadium full of people TODAY, without an opening act. The 3rd factor is this candidate has to pose a STRONG contrast in character/personality to Donald Trump
17. The Democratic candidate in 2020 MUST contrast with Donald Trump. They must be a person of impeccable integrity. They must be known for decency and compassion. They must be seen as generous and inspirational. No corruption.
18. Lastly, the Democratic candidate in 2020 must have a demonstrated history of being able to organize people on the national level. It would help if they have a real presence in all 50 states and know how to organize and mobilize people in practical ways.
19. In summary, here are the 4 factors needed to defeat Trump. a. A huge social media following b. A deeply devoted base of support - enough to pack stadiums c. A strong contrast in personality & character to Trump d. Experience with organizing on the national level
20. I believe just 3 people have the 4 factors to defeat Trump easily. Others could still win, but these 3 people would crush him. A. Oprah B. Michelle Obama C. Bernie Sanders Biden could win. Booker, Harris, Warren, Gillibrand could win Oprah, Michelle, Bernie would crush it
21. I agree with every single argument that "we don't need another celebrity." But 2020 is not normal. The person does not have to be a celebrity per se, but to defeat Trump, to win back the news cycle, will take very unique factors that only a few people have It's where we are
22. End of thread. We must not treat running against Trump like it's a normal thing. He's not normal. How he dominates the news is not normal. Defeating him will require a different approach. We could perhaps go back to normal down the road. But we're not there yet.
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