Opens profile photo
Follow
Shashank Joshi
@shashj
Defence editor at , Visiting fellow at King's College London.
Londonshashankjoshi.wordpress.comJoined November 2008

Shashank Joshi’s Tweets

Pinned Tweet
My piece for looking at how the Russian army has adapted and improved its tactics—more then you might think—and what impact that might have on Ukraine’s offensive. economist.com/europe/2023/05
Quote Tweet
Another excellent report from the RUSI team, this time on Russian tactical adaption. Great insight into evolution of Russian infantry tactics, artillery use, EW and air power. Makes for a sobering read. I’ve got a write-up of its findings out soon. rusi.org/explore-our-re
3
195
“The German authorities think the [Nord Stream] attack could only have been carried out with help from a state security service and have uncovered evidence that may point to Ukrainian involvement, according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper and its partner news organisations”
4
24
Show this thread
Plot thickens (again). “German investigators are sceptical of claims that Russian naval ships sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines and are instead pursuing leads that point to the Ukrainian authorities, according to a report.”
13
72
Show this thread
"The new project is being constructed next to Natanz, about 225 kilometers (140 miles) south of Tehran...Based on the size of the spoil piles and other satellite data ... Iran is likely building a facility at a depth of between 80 meters (260 feet) and 100 meters (328 feet)."
Quote Tweet
“Near a peak of the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, workers are building a nuclear facility so deep in the earth that it is likely beyond the range of a last-ditch U.S. weapon designed to destroy such sites.” twitter.com/jongambrellap/…
3
55
Show this thread
Black market was a snip by comparison. Presume it’s been tapped out by now. programs.fas.org/ssp/asmp/issue
Image
Quote Tweet
Image
"In the competitive environment before the companies consolidated, a shoulder-fired stinger missile cost $25,000 in 1991. With Raytheon...now the sole supplier, it costs more than $400,000 to replace each missile sent to Ukraine ... a seven-fold increase." cbsnews.com/news/pentagon-
19
Sums up way that Russian officials themselves didn’t realise Putin was set on war and all diplomacy was for show. “The Ukrainian-born envoy, Dmitry Kozak, told Putin that he believed the deal he had hammered out removed the need for Russia to pursue a large-scale occupation…”
Quote Tweet
"Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign" reuters.com/world/asia-pac
3
106
If the Ukrainian offensive fizzles then of course all this will be re-assessed. But these moves and statements are collectively making it easier to build on even modest success. Biggest question (apart from US election) is about defence industrial capacity to live up to this.
Quote Tweet
I think we are really seeing an important shift with the French, German & UK arms packages of the last month, F-16 & broader air training commitments, G7 declaration (“We are taking concrete steps to support Ukraine for as long as it takes”) and statements like Macron’s below. twitter.com/rymmomtaz/stat…
Show this thread
2
46
Show this thread
I think we are really seeing an important shift with the French, German & UK arms packages of the last month, F-16 & broader air training commitments, G7 declaration (“We are taking concrete steps to support Ukraine for as long as it takes”) and statements like Macron’s below.
Quote Tweet
Excellent from Macron on Ukraine: "Peace cannot be turning the situation into a frozen conflict... experience teaches us that a frozen conflict will be a war for tmrw...peace must...respect UN charter" hopefully puts to bed the harebrained schemes some have been trying to concoct
Embedded video
0:33
101.6K views
3
103
Show this thread
On today’s incursion by Ukrainian-aligned forces, including armour, into Russian territory:
Quote Tweet
While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences. The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier… Show more
Show this thread
5
54
If this assessment is broadly correct, 🇺🇦 is going to need air cover earlier rather than later: F16s, Mirage, Gripen in fighter mode (not simply in interdiction and CAS roles)
Quote Tweet
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 22 May 2023. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: ow.ly/1E8T50OsXUJ 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦
Show this thread
Image
7
54
The contest between China & India — rather than China and the west — for who really is the leader of the "global south" remains one of this year's most intriguing sub-themes, esp given India G20.
Quote Tweet
Striking language from James Marape as he opens meeting between Indian PM Narendra Modi and Pacific leaders. Marape calls Modi the "leader of the Global South" and India the "third big voice" in global politics which "must emerge." He says the Pacific will "rally behind" India
Image
7
146
Great🧵on #F16sForUkraine Of note is the use of land-based aviation for sea denial. "Even a relatively small number of [ASM] could dramatically shift the balance of power in the Black Sea."
Quote Tweet
Lot of virtual ink being spilled on F-16s to Ukraine over the past few days. It's looking like it will become a reality. So, let's discuss some of the capabilities, challenges, limitations, and best potential uses of the aircraft. 1/n
Show this thread
5
36
In 15 months of war, has anyone actually encircled anyone, apart from Mariupol?
Quote Tweet
Either way, the encirclement of thousands of Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut as feared by some commentators in the past months has not materialized. We will also only know the precise impact of the battle on the future course of the war in retrospect. ft.com/content/5950d5
26
211
‘A conversation with the sex workers later reveals that they see themselves as integral parts of the war effort. “We are here to lift our wonderful boys’ spirits,” says Natalie, a blonde in her mid-20s. “They are defending us, and we want to help them in any way we can.”…’
1
129
Show this thread
‘the messianic-existential aura that the Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church have given to the war has also contributed to nuclear normalization. Both institutions are framing the conflict in almost transcendental terms—as a … civil war within the “Russian world.”’
Quote Tweet
Important and disturbing read from Dmitry Adamsky, closing with an interesting warning about dangers of dismissing Russian leaders’ loose nuclear talk out of hand. foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa
Image
11
51
“Sullivan and Wang are both confident enough to talk off script. Over nearly a dozen hours of discussion, they threw schedules aside. They have the confidence of their bosses, Presidents Biden & Xi, to engage in detailed discussion about sensitive issues.”
7
288
Show this thread
SZ doesn’t believe the EU can get Ukraine in a year the 1 Million artillery shells it promised: arsenals are empty and the French veto to buy outside Europe makes this difficult. EU-Waffenhilfe für Ukraine: Woher sollen eine Million Granaten kommen?
8
121
Prez Biden: "I think people are going to look back at the Quad &, God willing, 10/20/30 years from now & say it changed the dynamic not only of the region but the world" He noted that an ASEAN leader told him, "I think the Quad is a very good idea" (likely Indonesia's Jokowi)
Quote Tweet
Opening remarks by the four Leaders at the Quad Meeting in Hiroshima short while ago. 🇮🇳🇺🇸🇯🇵🇦🇺 youtube.com/live/nyuqKSrh1
1
96
Show this thread
‘Colonel Biletsky dismissed notions that the Russians were poorly equipped as “more TikTok propaganda than reality…“They are well personally equipped, armed, they have means of communication, good armored vehicles and a very good system of [drones]”.’
7
203
Great thread on survivability/cost trade-off for drones. Cheap & vulnerable v costly & resilient. Question is over optimal mix of types in a fleet. One thing I’d add: cost of edge processing (chip on drone) for many tasks, including navigation by terrain matching, is plummeting.
Quote Tweet
How to Keep a Drone Alive: a thread. While the loss rate of UAVs in Ukraine - on both sides - is very high, it doesn’t have to be this way. Making UAVs survivable, however, comes with some trade-offs and support requirements. 1/20
Show this thread
Image
2
76
I'm sure an official transcript of Modi's opening remarks to Zelenskyy will be out soon but here's my translation from Hindi (also in India del: NSA Doval, EAM Jaishankar, FS Kwatra and I think I see PMO's Deepak Mittal)
Image
Quote Tweet
Embedded video
1:38
#WATCH | Japan: Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Hiroshima, for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, says, "Ukraine war is a big issue in the world. I don't consider it to be just an issue of economy, politics, for me, it… Show more
Show this thread
9
212
Show this thread
Interesting to see my mentions flooded with (presumably government sponsored) bot posts enthusing about India having the G20 in Kashmir. Musk’s bot crackdown has been a spectacular failure.
Image
Image
Image
Image
9
110