JavaScript is not available.

My piece for

@TheEconomist

looking at how the Russian army has adapted and improved its tactics—more then you might think—and what impact that might have on Ukraine’s offensive. economist.com/europe/2023/05

Quote Tweet

May 19

Another excellent report from the RUSI team, this time on Russian tactical adaption. Great insight into evolution of Russian infantry tactics, artillery use, EW and air power. Makes for a sobering read. I’ve got a write-up of its findings out soon. rusi.org/explore-our-re

195

‘Ukraine blew up Nord Stream pipelines, Germany believes’

39m

“The German authorities think the [Nord Stream] attack could only have been carried out with help from a state security service and have uncovered evidence that may point to Ukrainian involvement, according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper and its partner news organisations”

Plot thickens (again). “German investigators are sceptical of claims that Russian naval ships sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines and are instead pursuing leads that point to the Ukrainian authorities, according to a report.”

thetimes.co.uk

German investigators are sceptical of claims that Russian naval ships sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines and are instead pursuing leads that point to the U

Indian court issues BBC with summons over Modi documentary, say reports

"The high court in Delhi has issued a summons to the BBC in a defamation case over a documentary on the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, that questioned his leadership during the 2002 Gujarat riots"

theguardian.com

Documentary questioned Indian prime minister’s leadership during 2002 Gujarat riots

"The new Natanz facility is likely to be even deeper underground than Iran’s Fordo facility, another enrichment site that was exposed in 2009 ... That facility sparked fears in the West that Iran was hardening its program from airstrikes." apnews.com/article/iran-n

"The new project is being constructed next to Natanz, about 225 kilometers (140 miles) south of Tehran...Based on the size of the spoil piles and other satellite data ... Iran is likely building a facility at a depth of between 80 meters (260 feet) and 100 meters (328 feet)."

Quote Tweet

Eric Brewer

@BrewerEricM

“Near a peak of the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, workers are building a nuclear facility so deep in the earth that it is likely beyond the range of a last-ditch U.S. weapon designed to destroy such sites.” twitter.com/jongambrellap/…

WSJ News Exclusive | To Aid Ukraine in Fight Against Russia, Allies Look to Security Model Like...

‘…“It’s quite understandable that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO when there is war on Ukrainian territory—war which was started by Russia,” Duda said’

wsj.com

NATO membership isn’t on the table for now, but the U.S. and European allies could provide Kyiv guarantees for weapons and advanced technology.

Black market was a snip by comparison. Presume it’s been tapped out by now. programs.fas.org/ssp/asmp/issue

Quote Tweet

Eric Geller

@ericgeller

"In the competitive environment before the companies consolidated, a shoulder-fired stinger missile cost $25,000 in 1991. With Raytheon...now the sole supplier, it costs more than $400,000 to replace each missile sent to Ukraine ... a seven-fold increase." cbsnews.com/news/pentagon-

Sums up way that Russian officials themselves didn’t realise Putin was set on war and all diplomacy was for show. “The Ukrainian-born envoy, Dmitry Kozak, told Putin that he believed the deal he had hammered out removed the need for Russia to pursue a large-scale occupation…”

Quote Tweet

Ziya Meral

@Ziya_Meral

20h

"Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign" reuters.com/world/asia-pac

106

The Strategic Utility of Raiding » Wavell Room

Timely. “The Achillean perspective is that raids are an expression of military capability and offensive prouesse. Indeed, such is the mystique and kudos attached to raids that they dominate public perceptions of modern battle”

wavellroom.com

Raiding has been a part of warfare since Ancient times. Has it ever been worth doing? And is it something our Royal Marines should master?

106

Belgorod holds. 💪

1,271

If the Ukrainian offensive fizzles then of course all this will be re-assessed. But these moves and statements are collectively making it easier to build on even modest success. Biggest question (apart from US election) is about defence industrial capacity to live up to this.

Quote Tweet

I think we are really seeing an important shift with the French, German & UK arms packages of the last month, F-16 & broader air training commitments, G7 declaration (“We are taking concrete steps to support Ukraine for as long as it takes”) and statements like Macron’s below. twitter.com/rymmomtaz/stat…

Show this thread

Quote Tweet

Excellent from Macron on Ukraine: "Peace cannot be turning the situation into a frozen conflict... experience teaches us that a frozen conflict will be a war for tmrw...peace must...respect UN charter" hopefully puts to bed the harebrained schemes some have been trying to concoct

0:33

101.6K views

103

Dmitri

@wartranslated

Curious situation developing in Belgorod region this morning. According to online sources, the Russian border post "Grayvoron" was under heavy shelling this morning, followed by an attempt of an uknown tank(s) to drive into its territory. Video of the drone footage has Ukrainian… Show more

0:11

195.6K views

320

2,081

Kyle Glen

@KyleJGlen

The image on Google Maps for the border crossing point inside Russia captured by Ukrainian forces this morning has been updated.

847

On today’s incursion by Ukrainian-aligned forces, including armour, into Russian territory:

Quote Tweet

Dmitri

@wartranslated

While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences. The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier… Show more

Show this thread

François Heisbourg

@FHeisbourg

If this assessment is broadly correct, 🇺🇦 is going to need air cover earlier rather than later: F16s, Mirage, Gripen in fighter mode (not simply in interdiction and CAS roles)

Quote Tweet

Ministry of Defence

@DefenceHQ

10h

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 22 May 2023. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: ow.ly/1E8T50OsXUJ

#StandWithUkraine

Show this thread

james crabtree

@jamescrabtree

13h

The contest between China & India — rather than China and the west — for who really is the leader of the "global south" remains one of this year's most intriguing sub-themes, esp given India G20.

Quote Tweet

Stephen Dziedzic

@stephendziedzic

13h

Striking language from James Marape as he opens meeting between Indian PM Narendra Modi and Pacific leaders. Marape calls Modi the "leader of the Global South" and India the "third big voice" in global politics which "must emerge." He says the Pacific will "rally behind" India

146

Jeremy Stöhs

@JeremyStohs

20h

Great🧵on #F16sForUkraine Of note is the use of land-based aviation for sea denial. "Even a relatively small number of [ASM] could dramatically shift the balance of power in the Black Sea."

Quote Tweet

Brynn Tannehill

@BrynnTannehill

Lot of virtual ink being spilled on F-16s to Ukraine over the past few days. It's looking like it will become a reality. So, let's discuss some of the capabilities, challenges, limitations, and best potential uses of the aircraft. 1/n

Show this thread

495

2,413

22h

In 15 months of war, has anyone actually encircled anyone, apart from Mariupol?

Quote Tweet

Franz-Stefan Gady

@HoansSolo

Either way, the encirclement of thousands of Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut as feared by some commentators in the past months has not materialized. We will also only know the precise impact of the battle on the future course of the war in retrospect. ft.com/content/5950d5

211

How a front-line city became Ukraine’s romantic capital

23h

‘A conversation with the sex workers later reveals that they see themselves as integral parts of the war effort. “We are here to lift our wonderful boys’ spirits,” says Natalie, a blonde in her mid-20s. “They are defending us, and we want to help them in any way we can.”…’

129

Love & longing in Kramatorsk. ‘“Now is not the time to tackle morality,” says a military official. “The only thing we are concerned about is that the soldiers don’t say things they shouldn’t, and the girls don’t pass on things to the enemy.”’

economist.com

Just 30km from the fierce fighting in Bakhmut, Kramatorsk is adapting to wartime

294

“German police are investigating the possible poisoning of two Russian exiles who attended a conference in Berlin at the end of April, organised by the Russian Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky”

theguardian.com

German police investigate possible poisoning of two Russian exiles

One of the women is Natalia Arno, director of the Free Russia Foundation, and the other woman is a journalist

111

Jonathan Cheng

@JChengWSJ

A conversation with Henry Kissinger

Kissinger: "When I was with Ford in Vladivostok, I peeled off to go to China…to show the Russians that we had a Chinese option…Deng said…'It’s ours! And it’s called'—whatever it’s called in Chinese—'and all the cities around there are all ours.'"

economist.com

The transcript of his meeting with our journalists

151

‘the messianic-existential aura that the Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church have given to the war has also contributed to nuclear normalization. Both institutions are framing the conflict in almost transcendental terms—as a … civil war within the “Russian world.”’

Quote Tweet

Matthew Harries

@harries_matthew

Important and disturbing read from Dmitry Adamsky, closing with an interesting warning about dangers of dismissing Russian leaders’ loose nuclear talk out of hand. foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa

Opinion | In Vienna, the U.S.-China relationship shows signs of hope

“there’s apparently a growing counterargument [in China] that the war strengthens America’s alliances in Europe and Asia and creates long-term trouble for China. U.S. officials say they believe the latter argument is gaining force in Beijing.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/

283

“Sullivan and Wang are both confident enough to talk off script. Over nearly a dozen hours of discussion, they threw schedules aside. They have the confidence of their bosses, Presidents Biden & Xi, to engage in detailed discussion about sensitive issues.”

washingtonpost.com

Frank discussions on Ukraine, global superiority and Taiwan might lead the two nations to a more fruitful coexistence.

288

Ulrike Franke

@RikeFranke

EU-Waffenhilfe für Ukraine: Woher sollen eine Million Granaten kommen?

SZ doesn’t believe the EU can get Ukraine in a year the 1 Million artillery shells it promised: arsenals are empty and the French veto to buy outside Europe makes this difficult. EU-Waffenhilfe für Ukraine: Woher sollen eine Million Granaten kommen?

sueddeutsche.de

Es war ein großes Versprechen: Eine Million Artilleriegeschosse soll die Ukraine aus der EU bekommen. Doch geliefert ist bisher fast nichts.

121

Russian mercenaries behind slaughter of 500 in Mali village, UN report finds

“Investigators from the UN human rights office concluded that there are strong indications that more than 500 people were killed – the majority in extrajudicial killings – by Malian troops and foreign military personnel believed to be from Wagner”

theguardian.com

Report implicates Wagner group fighters in Moura atrocity, including the torture and rape of civilians

157

256

G7 Leaders’ Hiroshima Vision on Nuclear Disarmament | The White House

Matthew Harries

@harries_matthew

May 19

This strikes me as a rather strong statement on nuclear disarmament, given the very challenging security environment. It also includes tough words not just on Russia but on China too. Some things that stick out to me: 🧵/1

whitehouse.gov

We, the Leaders of the G7, met at a historical juncture in Hiroshima, which together with Nagasaki offers a reminder of the unprecedented devastation and immense human suffering the people of...

“G-7 leaders directed their countries’ top officials to work together on the issue and establish the “Hiroshima AI process” to discuss generative AI and report back by the end of 2023.”

washingtonpost.com

At G-7 summit, leaders call for international standards on AI

New technologies should be governed by democratic values, G-7 leaders said, adding that international guidelines have not kept pace with AI's rapid growth.

Tanvi Madan

@tanvi_madan

Prez Biden: "I think people are going to look back at the Quad &, God willing, 10/20/30 years from now & say it changed the dynamic not only of the region but the world" He noted that an ASEAN leader told him, "I think the Quad is a very good idea" (likely Indonesia's Jokowi)

Quote Tweet

Vani Rao

@VaniRao1

‘Approaching. Move In.’ How Ukraine Reversed the Momentum in Bakhmut

Opening remarks by the four Leaders at the Quad Meeting in Hiroshima short while ago.

youtube.com/live/nyuqKSrh1

‘Colonel Biletsky dismissed notions that the Russians were poorly equipped as “more TikTok propaganda than reality…“They are well personally equipped, armed, they have means of communication, good armored vehicles and a very good system of [drones]”.’

nytimes.com

Seizing an opening as Russia rotated troops, Ukraine pressed ahead with three days of maneuvers that gained ground on the flanks of Bakhmut.

203

Great thread on survivability/cost trade-off for drones. Cheap & vulnerable v costly & resilient. Question is over optimal mix of types in a fleet. One thing I’d add: cost of edge processing (chip on drone) for many tasks, including navigation by terrain matching, is plummeting.

Quote Tweet

Jack Watling

@Jack_Watling

How to Keep a Drone Alive: a thread. While the loss rate of UAVs in Ukraine - on both sides - is very high, it doesn’t have to be this way. Making UAVs survivable, however, comes with some trade-offs and support requirements. 1/20

Show this thread

Sophie Pedder

@PedderSophie

Some really interesting diplomacy going on here. The 🇫🇷 government plane that transported Zelensky from Saudi to Japan for the G7 summit was granted overflight rights by both India—and China Tracking by

@CotamFleet

369

Tanvi Madan

@tanvi_madan

I'm sure an official transcript of Modi's opening remarks to Zelenskyy will be out soon but here's my translation from Hindi (also in India del: NSA Doval, EAM Jaishankar, FS Kwatra and I think I see PMO's Deepak Mittal)

Quote Tweet

ANI

@ANI

1:38

#WATCH | Japan: Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Hiroshima, for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, says, "Ukraine war is a big issue in the world. I don't consider it to be just an issue of economy, politics, for me, it… Show more

Show this thread

212

Rob Lee

@RALee85