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Conditional on remaining in the race, Biden is probably the favorite in SC. But his decision on whether to stay or quit is itself affected by political conditions, so the model can't just assume that he stays in.
Doesn't this mean we should see his projected chances increasing over time, since with less time between today and the primary, there is less chance of him dropping out? Will we see the model give him a huge spike on Feb 28, when there's virtually 0 chance of dropping out?
