in other news, Local Server's Own Calamity Jane Refuses to Place Bet On Perfectly Falsifiable Predictions For Umpteenth Time
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man I gotta get back into forecasting I used to track social predictions and it was a huge help wrt social anxiety to get an idea of how over/underconfident I was
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part of my problem with most forecasting hubs is that I just don't care enough to research politics or business GJOpen is mostly that
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things I enjoy predicting: -other people's reactions to my behavior -relationship milestones -social things like divorces/breakups/marriages -severity of disasters -my own productivity -life events for loved ones/friends
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glancing at metaculus ok there are some interesting topics here -coronavirus -# of adults self-reporting as such-and-such by [date] -whether or not any governments will stop using cash currency -some of the tech stuff but mostly I just wanna make bets about ME AND MY FRIENDS
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A frequentist counts chickens after they hatch. A Bayesian bets the eggs that they will.
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How do you collect if the world ends?
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I've found that offering to bet shuts down an amazing number of conversations. Which is sad, because I think I could have probably made a decent wad of cash had I bid lower and been sneakier about it.
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me too :( totally should've pushed for more bets when I was arguing that Trump would suck but not lead us into nuclear war his first term
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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